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Section D TransportationNorth Meridian Area Plan Section D: Transportation System Plan North Meridian Area Plan Section D-1 Compiled by Wardle & Associates November 15, 2002 I. Preface Transportation system concerns, fueled by the projected pace of development in North Meridian, prompted the North Meridian Area Plan (NMAP). Section B of this Plan, Implementation Issues, Strategies and Policies, provides the framework for transportation decision-makers on the system itself. But it does not address timing or funding options for the required system improvements. Elected officials requested a specific plan for transporta- tion improvements as part of this effort. However, it is necessary to cite fundamental inconsistencies that elected officials must address before a definitive plan can be developed. q Population Projections ▲ The current COMPASS growth projection1 for North Meridian— and the ten square-mile planning area—is for only an additional 4,214 dwelling units in the twenty-year forecast period. ▲ WGI’s October, 2001, study projected 15,912 dwellings for the same area, during the same twenty-year period—nearly four times the COMPASS estimate. ▲ Which forecast is accurate? · If COMPASS, then the need for system improvements will be substantially deferred. · If WGI, then the issue is the phasing of improvements and allocation of resources must be planned. ▲ If the actual growth rate is between COMPASS and ACHD/WGI, then public/private partnerships may assist ACHD bridge short-term resource gaps. · A middle-range scenario or WGI’s, for that matter, will require a political decision: Assignment of growth units from other areas of the region, or an overall increase in projected population growth within the region. · Companion to any change in assigned growth numbers will be a reallocation of transportation system funds North Meridian Area Plan Section D: Transportation System Plan North Meridian Area Plan Section D-2 Compiled by Wardle & Associates November 15, 2002 (#74) for the one-mile segment from Meridian Road to Locust Grove Road. · The same draft CIP proposes the SH 16 River Crossing (#120) as the means of relieving congestion on the Glenwood bridge. - How does this facility address congestion at Glenwood when there are two existing bridges (Linder Road and Eagle Road) and one proposed bridge (Three Rivers Crossing) between the two? · The long-term benefit of the SH 16 Crossing is not at issue, the justification is. - For example, the prior CIP draft (dated 9-27-02), cited “no deficiency” as the basis for “considered but dropped following ACHD staff review” for a number of long-planned projects, including facilities such as the East ParkCenter Bridge. ▲ If the proposed CIP accurately projects needed improvements, and the only deficiency within ACHD’s North Meridian transportation system is the noted one-mile segment of McMillan Road, then only up-grading and maintenance efforts, and strategic intersection improvements will be required within the planning area over the next twenty years. · Under any scenario, the WGI-projected system improvements are not needed “tomorrow.” There is excess capacity currently in the system, and there will be surplus capacity, with levels of service (LOS) as high as “A,” on some segments of the completed system. The purpose of this discussion is twofold: First, to point out that there is a need to re-visit population forecasts for North Meridian Area Plan Section D: Transportation System Plan North Meridian Area Plan Section D-3 Compiled by Wardle & Associates November 15, 2002 Meridian transportation system. The cost for the re-modeling was deemed too great, rendering that effort infeasible. The Report up-date was not authorized by ACHD until early October and is not yet complete (as of November 11, 2002). Thus, projected construction costs, even in updated form, may not accurately reflect the future improvements for Ten Mile Road, given the North Meridian Area Plan’s designation of Black Cat Road (versus Ten Mile) as the SH 16 to I-84 connection. The up-dated Construction Cost Report, when completed, will serve as the North Meridian Area Plan’s basis for arterial reconstruction and system improvements. The attached North Meridian Funding Analysis, prepared by the North Meridian Planning team and based on the first version of the WGI Cost Report, indicates the following: · All costs for reconstruction of existing roadways and required capacity expansions are covered by potential funding sources. · “Developer contributions,” i.e., arterial sidewalks, right-of-way at cost, bike lane alternatives (combined with sidewalks…); and partnerships with ACHD are expected to more than cover $13 million of the projected costs. · Developer-initiated, designed and constructed projects will yield substantial savings in capital system improvement cost projections. - “Real” costs will decrease with project specifics and planning · Cash flow shortfalls may occur, but there are sufficient resources i.e., impact fees, impact fee offset agreements, property tax, highway user tax, etc., within the service area to cover the costs. - Bonding or other interim financing mechanisms may have to be employed to bridge the gap. [NOTE: With the expected reduced cost projections of the Report, the shortfalls may be minimal or non-existent.] III. Transportation System Plan North Meridian Area Plan Section D: Transportation System Plan North Meridian Area Plan Section D-4 Compiled by Wardle & Associates November 15, 2002 The transportation system phasing and funding plan would detail three components: 1) Arterial Intersections 2) Intermediate (mid-section) intersections 3) Lane expansions The plan would project a phasing time- line for each to determine if available public funding sources meet the needs, or if public/private partnerships would be required to address short-term cash flow problems. Assumptions · Arterial intersection improvements (addition of turn lanes, initially, followed by signalization) will add capacity and system efficiency. · Access controls will limit the number of intermediate (mid- section) intersections. - Developers will add required turn lanes (which add roadway capacity) at those intersections in the first phase of the project through reimbursement/credit agreements with ACHD. · Intersection improvements may substantially defer the need for added travel lanes. · Developers desiring to up-grade and complete a project’s frontage will enter into reimbursement agreements with ACHD to widen the roadways to their ultimate section. I.V. Conclusion The North Meridian planning team is prepared to work with the elected officials and developers to prepare the requested transportation system plan when the required information (Construction Cost Report) is available—and when decisions are made on growth projections and incorporated into the ACHD CIP. North Meridian Area Plan Section D: Transportation System Plan North Meridian Area Plan Section D-5 Compiled by Wardle & Associates November 15, 2002 Because the Construction Cost Report up-date is not complete, it is not possible to recommend a specific funding or phasing plan at this time. A follow-on effort is necessary—when the Report is complete, and when… · COMPASS’ growth projections (the basis of ACHD’s CIP) have been reviewed and adjusted; and, · ACHD adopts a CIP based on those adjustments. As a result of that effort, the phasing and funding plan for North Meridian transportation system improvements would be based on more realistic development assumptions reflective of approved and pending projects. North Meridian, and to modify—as necessary—the official growth projections and transportation resource allocations. Second, to encourage COMPASS and ACHD to reconcile the inconsistencies and contradictions between the CIP, the COMPASS forecasts, and WGI’s proposed transportation system improvements required for North Meridian growth. II. Needed Information ACHD was asked on July 11, 2002, to re-model traffic flows with Black Cat Road as the north/south connection from SH 16 to the Ten Mile interchange, and to up-date the North Meridian Impact Study Area: Right-of-Way and Construction Cost Report. That is necessary for the North Meridian Area Plan to accurately address the phasing and funding requirements of the North from other areas, where reductions occur, to North Meridian. q ACHD Capital Improvement Plan ▲ A Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) is currently being prepared for adoption by ACHD. It is based on deficiencies identified by the COMPASS 2025 Regional Travel Demand Model. ▲ The CIP should also consider ACHD/WGI’s North Meridian study forecast, but does not appear to do so. · ACHD’s October 11, 2002, draft CIP identifies only one North Meridian roadway deficiency: McMillan Road