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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2009 08-18 Joint Planning & ZoningMeridian Citv Council 8z Plannina & Zonina Commission Joint Auaust 18, 2009 A joint meeting of the Meridian City Council and Planning & Zoning Commission was called to order at 5:30 p.m., Tuesday, August 18, 2009, by Council President Charlie Rountree. Members Present: Tammy de Weerd, Charlie Rountree, Keith Bird, Brad Hoaglun and David Zaremba. Item 1: Roll-call Attendance: Roll call. X David Zaremba X Brad Hoaglun X Charlie Rountree X Keith Bird X Mayor Tammy de Weerd X Wendy Newton-Huckabay X Tom O'Brien X Michael Rohm -Vice Chairman Joe Marshall X David Moe -Chairman De Weerd: I'll go ahead and call this meeting to order. For the record it is Tuesday, 18 August, at 5:30. I'd like to welcome our staff and our guests here today. We appreciate you all joining -- and, of course, Ralph. And we appreciate you all being here and Ralph is here, so we can start. We will start tonight's meeting with roll call attendance for both Planning and Zoning Commission and the City Council. Item 2: Adoption of the Agenda: De Weerd: Thank you so much. Item No. 2 is adoption of the agenda. Zaremba: Madam Mayor? De Weerd: Mr. Zaremba. Zaremba: I move we adopt the agenda as published. Hoaglun: Second. De Weerd: I have a motion and a second to adopt the agenda as published. All those in favor say aye. All ayes. Motions carried. MOTION CARRIED: ALL AYES. Item 3: ULI Development 101: Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 2 of 25 De Weerd: Item 3 is our ULI, Urban Land Institute Development 101. And I will turn this over to the chair Bob Taunton. Taunton: Thank you, Mayor. Good evening, Members of Council, Members of the Commission. We are pleased to be here today. There is four of us, but as you can see there is only three of us at the moment. Apparently there is a crash on the freeway and Rod Perez, who is the CEO of Western Capital Bank, is we think out there. Diane is trying to call him right now. So -- but we are going to get started and we may skip over - - oh. Okay. Apparently he's arriving, so we will be able to get underway as scheduled. Again, my name is Bob Taunton, I'm the principal in a consulting firm Taunton Consulting. I am the chairman of ULI Idaho, which includes Idaho and Montana. So, large geographic area. And with me today is Diane Kushlan. Many of you know Diane. She is our district counsel coordinator. Also has her own planning consulting firm that I think many of you are also familiar with. On my right is Deborah Nelson, who is a real estate attorney with Givens Pursley and, as I said, Rob Perez will be amving shortly. Bruce Chatterton was going to be on our panel. He is the planning and services -- planning services director -- planning and development services director for Boise City. Bruce was unable to make it tonight, but I think we can -- we can cover up for him pretty well. Just a brief introduction to what we are doing. A few of us last year were thinking about the development process and to a certain extent a bit of a disconnect between the private sector and the public sector and I'm not laying blame at anyone's feet, but it's just there are kind of disconnects that prevent the process from working smoothly and, certainly, we thought that there was a -- a lack of understanding, perhaps, of the financial considerations of real estate development. But I think as we -- we go through the presentation you will see that, actually, the private sector and public sector are much more aligned and it just -- perhaps it's a situation where both sides aren't aware of the other's needs and wants as much as they should be and there may be some kind of timing sequencing situations, but I think you will see that those of us that are in the private sector and what our needs are, match up pretty well with what we -- some of us remember from being on the public side as well. De Weerd: Hey, Bob, if I could interrupt you for a moment. I think it would be helpful if you know the staff members that are here. So, I would like to ask them to introduce themselves and share what department they are from. So, Caleb, we can start with you. Hood: I'm with the planning department here at the City of Meridian. I'm the planning manager. Parsons: My name is Bill Parsons, associate planner for the city. Wafters: Sonya Wafters, associate city planner with the city. Shiffer: Barbara Shiffer, administrative assistant to the planning department. Canning: Anna Canning, Planning Director for the city. Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 3 of 25 Pete Friedman: Deputy planning director. Freckleton: Bruce Freckleton, development services manager. Barry: Tom Bany, Public Works director. Whitman: Duant Whitman, I'm a building official. Siddoway: Steve Siddoway, Parks and Recreation Director. Barton: Mike Barton, parks and rec. Huff: Elroy Huff. Parks manager. Bjornson: Brent Bjornson, building services and inspection. Stewart: Warren Stewart, engineering manager. Smith: Mindi Smith, Development Services. O'Dell: Bonnie O'Dell, building services department. O'Brien: Steve O'Brien, development analyst. Cline: Denny Cline, development analyst. Adams: Haley Adams, development services. De Weed: That's Ron Anderson, our fire chief. Bill Johnson, deputy chief. Lieutenant Overton. Our stenographer. Dean. He's very important. Oh. And our city attorney. Sony, Bill. Taunton: Thank you, Mayor. And thanks for all of the staff for being here this evening. We hope that -- as we say in ULI, there will be a great deal of take-home value. I mentioned that, you know, last year we were starting to think about the financial side of real estate development and trying to develop a program which would -- could maybe turn into a road show and talk to the public sector about the issues that the private sector faces in terms of real estate development and from that we decided to expand that into, you know, the processes. We gave this presentation at the Association of Idaho Cities in June and we have been invited to do a repeat performance next year in Twin Falls. We hope to perhaps do this presentation with other local governments, probably send it up to our folks in north Idaho. We have a large group of ULI members up there. So, one of the things that I -- I mentioned that's been my experience over my career working in a variety of locations, I have encountered -- dealing with planning staffs where I would be concerned about the -- the expenditures that would be Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 4 of 25 necessary to kind of satisfy the requirements or the timing of those expenditures and I would, unfortunately, often get the response -- well, this is about good planning, it's not about economics and, unfortunately, it is about economics, because the best outcome for cities and for the private sector is to have a successful project both from a planning and design standpoint. The right project, the right design, in the right location and also for it to be financially successful and the reason for that is that the private sector tends to repeat what they see as successes. So, it's in the best interest of a community to have asuccessful -- financially successful project that also reflects their goals and objectives and design standards and that sort of thing and that's what we hope in ULI to be able to foster. A large part of what we do in ULI is community outreach, as well as many of the other publications and conferences and advisory panels and so on. So, this is -- is our effort to try and work at marrying the needs of both groups and, hopefully, helping the public sector understand some of the risks that we face on the private side. The presentation topics are before you. I won't go through them. But we are going to have, you know, individuals in our group kind of take the lead on some of these topics, but what we would like to do is have an informal discussion where those of us that might have an additional comment to make on a particular topic area, we are just going to jump in and do that and we would invite the Council and the Commission to ask questions as we go along. We have set up a Q and A period for the end and, of course, we need to keep things moving, but if there are key questions that you have that you might like to ask based on one of the topics, feel free to do that and, then, we will -- you know, could take a couple of questions and, then, we will move along and, then, perhaps get into more detail at the end of the -- at the end of the session. So, the first -- the first topic that we are going to talk about is steps in the development process and Deborah and Diane will go through that and it's from, you know, the private perspective, as well as the public perspective and how those two really come together. Diane and Deborah. Nelson: Well, I'll jump in first and give a little bit of a developer's perspective of what's going on in the background before they even bring forward an application and possibly, yeah, some of this work will even be going on before they have any initial conversations with city officials or city staff. There is a business concept that has to be developed and this is going to be framed based on that particular developer's experiences, it's going to be framed based on the current market conditions. It might be framed by a site if there is a site constraint already. It might be constrained by financing. But they got to come up with a business concept that pencils out at the end of the day and that creates a successful project. If they are not already constrained by a site, they might be looking for a site and trying to figure out what site works. Well, is it a comer of an arterial intersection that works for commercial? Is it near a water amenity that works well for residential? What is the size of the site? Is it large enough to accommodate a big box retail use? Does it have enough distance from intersections to have access at the appropriate distances. What are the services? All of these things are being considered early on as they make the decision about what site. There is always financing constraints. There is often at the early stages of a project you don't have financing lined up from public financing sources. You may have your own money, you may have a private equity partner. You might have some public financing, but it's difficult at that Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 5 of 25 point to have your full financing lined up, because you don't have an entitlement. You get a little bit into the chicken and egg stage where a bank's not going to write you a blank check when you don't know exactly what you're use is, but you can't move forward to develop that use until you have got some cash in the bank. So, you have to be very careful as you move forward through this process to make sure that you have got the money lined up. On the real estate side, you may have an agreement with a land owner or you may need to have further investment and control over that land, which means you may have an option on a property or you may need to actually go outright and buy it, which, obviously, is a huge investment before you have got an entitlement in place. But all of that is dependent upon the market, it's dependent upon location, and it's dependent upon the control you need over that property as you move forward. So, all of this is .going on in the background and in the end when a developer is ready to bring forward an actual product, maybe it's still got rough edges in there and early communication stages with staff or maybe it's very narrow and there is really just things that can work for them on this site and what the market will allow at that time. But whatever the rough or the finish product level they have, they have constraints that are big at this point. They have got site constraints. They have got financing constraints. They have got a particular business model that is only going to work. They also have their own experience constraints. If they are a commercial developer that has particular relationships with big box commercial retail tenants, it isn't going to work for them to switch gears and suddenly put in a neighborhood bookstore and they've only got what they have to work with. So, knowing that all of that work has gone in before they can even bring forward a proposal, it's important for the city to understand that context when they do a number of things. The cues from the city that the developer has to work with to develop that project is what's in your Comprehensive Plan and what's in your zoning ordinance and so the clarity that you can communicate in those documents is really important as the developer is working to -- you know, to see that works here. Also, the follow through that they can expect for the -- for the plan and for the ordinance, if they have got a particular density in mind that's going to pencil out and that's allowed under the plan, but, ultimately, a lower density is approved, that could be fatal for the project. They also -- it's really important that they do come in to visit with the city at early stages and throughout the process to get as much guidance as they can from city staff and city officials that it -- it really shouldn't be a hide the ball game from anybody's side at this point. If staff or the city knows that there is an inclination in a particular area for density to be lower than the comprehensive plan or there is concems that have been raised by neighbors or there are access issues that are constantly seeing from the highway district or whatever it is, whatever piece of information sharing it sooner, rather than later is good and the developer should also be as forthright about what their intentions are, what their expectations are, and that dialogue is really important. Also, from the city's perspective of how they can help in understanding this process is being sure to coordinate as best they can, because the city is going to be in a better position, usually, than the developer to make sure that all the right players know about this project to really think and press them for what their concems are early on, think about whether or not there is the right emergency access for the fire department. Think about whether there really is sufficient spacing for access. Now, that's -- you know, those are decisions that the city doesn't necessarily control all the parts and pieces of, they can Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 6 of 25 coordinate the interactions and make sure that there aren't surprises at the end of the day. And, then, just finally understanding and appreciating that based on all this work and possibly very narrow constraints that are brought forward at the time that an application comes to hearing, that even minor adjustments and conditions have a significant impact on the development. Now, that's not to say that the city doesn't have its own very real concerns and considerations for what it wants to see and needs to see in a particular project. Now, that's always going to be true and should be true. But, hopefully, those concerns of the city are imposed in a way or expressed in a way that takes into account the great deal of project planning that's gone into place development and the limited amount of wiggle room they might have before that project can't succeed in that location. Kushlan: And most of you know I have worked in the public sector, so I'm going to be talking from -- to do that lends of my experience and a good developer, as part of that due diligence step, that last step in the prior slide, part of that due diligence is coming to the city and finding out what is the city's expectations in terms of their Comprehensive Plan and what are the requirements under zoning and the subdivision. So, those three steps -- those first three are ones that you as elected officials and Planning and Zoning Commission are very, very familiar with, but, then, as the project progresses there is a hand off that happens to your staff and there is a number of further steps happen to the city, including obtaining the ability to provide infrastructure of those roads and sewer and water and, then, as building permits come through, the building permit review, inspections, and, then, finally, certificate of occupancy. And that first heading under project, you see that the steps that the developer has to go through and it's important that they are able to sequence that with the steps that the public process is going through at the same time. So, there is some coordination and efficiency in the process. Debbie, you wanted to add to that? Nelson: I would just make the additional comment that, you know, looking at this slide you see there is a private process that's going on during and after some of the initial entitlements are secured and just keep in mind that some of that involves different departments within the city and yet is the same developer and considerations on the outside and so they may have had certain understandings or intentions going into a project, but now are in the building department, instead of the planning department and as much consistency and carry through as there can be from the city to try to help shepherd projects through is always helpful from a developer. Taunton: Okay. The next topic that we would like to discuss is -- Rob will be leading this -- is a bit of a case study -- hypothetical case study for a real estate project and the various perspectives that come into play, which perhaps public officials are not necessarily aware of. So, Rob, would you like to start it off? Perez: Sure. Thanks. You know, I have been in the -- been in the audience before, I never thought I would actually be sitting -- sitting here. I would like to say that I have worked with a number of you before. Caleb and Bill and -- I don't know if Anna is here. But been very helpful. Obviously, it's not always -- and the process isn't intended to be Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 7 of 25 easy, but I have always gotten all the help that I need, all the direction I need, it's been very clear what -- what has to be done in order to be successful and so I just want, again, to extend my appreciation for the services that you have rendered to me. Even though I'm a banker by day, I do play a developer on television in the evenings. I have done a number of commercial developments, two of which are here in Meridian, and I have teamed a great deal. So, it's been fun for me and you will notice as I go through this that I think that experience probably colors the way I see this differently than if I had simply rented money for a living. So, with the -- do I trigger the slides here, Diane? Okay. Is there a touch screen, is that -- oh, okay. I have this attention for the hypothetical and the oversimplified and you have Rob and Bob's bar napkin analysis, more artfully known at the integrated approach to real estate development. So, let's get on with what I mean by integrated approach to real estate development. Being a banker I do have a penchant for numbers and also I guess the oversimplified, as you will probably see as we go through this. But I'd like to say this. The thing that drives almost everything in this business is capital. So, the question really isn't always what is it we like, it's what will attract the capital, because if you don't do that nothing gets done and the primary source of capital, obviously, for real estate development is traditional bank financing and today that's virtually nonexistent and we can explorer the reasons for that in any length that you'd like. This will get further through the slides. The first slide is a buyer's perspective. Is Peter here, Peter Friedman? Oh. Wow. Thank you, Peter. Peter is the one that helped me get -- and I understand that north of the freeway your average median income is probably different than south of the freeway and there is pockets where it's well above 80,000 and there is pockets where it may be below 60,000, but Peter and I decided that it would make sense to stick with the 63,900 as the median income for Meridian household. Looking at just some standard kind of reoccurring expenses, what I'm doing here at a 60,000 foot level is I'm saying what's going to attract capital. Capital is going to be attracted by what the buyer wants. All right? The banks will figure that out with the help of the marketplace and so if we look at the 5,325 a month in income and we say, hey, you have got a car payment, you have got a student loan and some credit cards, the way a mortgage company will look at this is they will take that gross income and they will take it times 40 percent, they will back out those expenses and they will solve for what the maximum payment is. Now, you may say, well, wait a minute, you know, I or a friend, whatever, I got a 50 percent, you know, disposable income mortgage. If you look at the national statistics, about 28 percent of your gross income -- monthly income is where you will be today. The market is not leveraging -- the consumer is not leveraging as they did. By the way, I'm song about this, because I'm Basque and so one side of you gets the big Basque nose from one side and the other. I wish I could look at you -- I apologize, but, you know, I can't do anything about that and I wasn't willing to play for the surgery. If you -- if you solve, then, for what the payment is, less taxes and insurance, you all of a sudden have your monthly payment. I can, then, take that monthly payment with the knowns, being interest rate of about five and a half percent and the term being 30 years, and I can solve for what the maximum mortgage is, 208,000 dollars. I can, then, assume if you have -- depending whether you have three percent down, five percent, ten percent, whatever it is. Talking to the mortgage company contacts I have, most of what's driving the market today is the new buyer and the new buyer, frankly, has to keep as little down Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 8 of 25 as they can and so we use the three percent number. Can we go to the next slide? That will solve for, then, what you can pay -- what the retail value is for the home, 215,000. Okay. So, that's what the buyer wants in today°s market. Okay. Based upon the average median income and all those other assumptions. Now, let's take a look at what the builder says if they know that. The builder says for that price -- and, by the way, these numbers I got from my friend and good client David Turnbull and his associate Lars Hansen. And those guys can build anywhere retail now from 96 a foot to 122 a foot. We settled on about 105 a foot. And I -- that, then, solves for what the home site is that you're getting for that 215,000. Vertical costs, which include interest cant' and soft costs are about 63 bucks a foot. There is a range. You know, I could argue that it's 65, I could argue that it's, you know, 59, depending on who you're talking to. So, now you have the home cost before the lot and it's a vertical cost of 130,000. You have got closing costs and commissions on both the lot and the house of nine percent, typically seven percent would be a range for -- without a lot to closing involved, without a lot commission involved. And, then, you have ten percent builder profit and you think, gee, that's a lot of money. Given -- given what goes on, that -- those are really pretty skinny margins. We have just come through extraordinary times where the builder -- the developers and the builders made unbelievable amounts of money. What they didn't do is they didn't put any aside for a rainy day and we will talk about that a little more as we go down the path. They need these thick margins. They need fat margins given the risks that we already discussed in business. So, if you, then, put all those together, the 130, the closing costs, builder profit, your total cost before the lot is 170. So, what did I do? I took the 215 retail value, pulled out the 170 and I just solved for what the builder can buy for the lot. So, I'm a builder, then, and I know the sweet spot for the home, that -- I know what it's going to cost me to build. Now I know what I can pay the developer for the lot; right? So, let's go to the developer. The developer says, okay, in order to really be in the marketplace I have got to sell lots for about 45,000 bucks apiece; right? Is everybody with me on the math? If I need a 27 percent gross profit -- it goes anywhere from 25 to 30 percent and, believe me, depending on absorption, getting strung out -- absorption meaning the pace at which lots sell, you know, that can be quickly -- you know, believe me, I have got a project I have been on far four years now. The profit was gone a year ago. And I -- by the way, I penciled it out at higher than a 27 percent margin. The cost to construct, again, it varies. If you're building a Dennis Baker subdivision that could be three times that. If you're building a Corey Barton it could be a slight -- slightly below. But for that price point on the house, I think 22 is not a bad number. So, we solved for what can you pay for the land; right? You have 45, which is retail. You know what your profit is. You know what your cost to construct is. So, you solve, then, what you can pay for land. Now, all you need to know is what's my yield per the acre. Okay? For what I pay for the land what's my conversion. And I'm saying here it's three and a half. Bob will tell you, you know, it could be below that, depending on the size of the lots. Certainly it could be -- it could be above that, depending on what type of home. But I think for this type of -- what we are talking about, three and a half to one is probably a pretty good conversion. So, if you take that three and a half to one, you can solve for what I pay per acre for the land. So, today -- in today's market, if you believe that 215 is the right sales price and you know there is a builder, what it costs you to build, that means the developer, knowing the Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 9 of 25 sweet spot to sell a lot, can only pay 38,500 an acre and still make profit at 27 percent, assuming some assumptions that are coming up. Now, I use 40 acres -- just kind of a 40 acre number as an example. If we can go to the next slide. We are going to see what an appraiser -- did we skip a slide? No? Is that the next one? Okay. There we go. So, on 40 acres, we have three and a half lots to the acre, so we have 140 lots that we are going to create. At 45,000 dollars a lot that gives you a total retail value of six million three. If we are able to sell three amonth -- and today that won't happen. But let's just think, you know, in a rosy fashion. Let's just think that maybe -- you know, 2003 comes back. You're looking at a total absorption of four years. Do you know what that's going to do to your appraisal? Next slide. The appraiser is going to run a discounted cash flow. Discounted cash flow -- does everybody know what a discounted cash flow is? Show of hands. Okay. I own a six million three retail value today. I'm going to get that six million three over four years. What's the value today -- the present value of those future cash flows? An appraiser will tell you it's about 70 percent of that retail value, if it's going to take beyond three years. So, your discounted value is really only four million four ten. So, you say, wait, I -- you know, I can sell it for -- it's like saying, okay, I can sell my car today, Bruce -- Bruce has got his car for sale. He doesn't, but let's say he does, he sells the car for whatever it is. Bruce is probably driving a Hummer, so he's going to sell that for 15,000 dollars and let's say that he gets that -- but he does it on a contract of no interest and he gets that -- that paid back in three years. He hasn't gotten 15,000 dollars, he's gotten ten, given the time value of money. So, if you look at -- if you back out that land cost that we use per lot and you back out the cost to construct at 22 a lot, now you say my total costs are four million six twenty, I sold it for six million three, guess what, I made almost a million five. And, by the way, that return of nine percent is per annum. Okay? So, I made almost a million five. But look at what the discounted value is. If you really take into account what it costs you over time to do it, your discounted profit is only 210,000 dollars. Maybe negative 210,000. Did you really make the money you thought. Go to the next slide, please, Diane. So, let's talk about my favorite subject how the banker looks at this. So, a banker says I'm only going to lend you 75 percent of the real value and the real value is -- the present value of those future cash flows, what it's worth today, not the accumulation of that money over four years, that's not the value today. So, I'm going to lend you 75 percent of the discounted value. Okay? Or the lesser of that or 80 percent of cost, because, guess what, as a banker we want you to have skin in the game. See this top segment? That's where we as bankers failed. We focused on appraisals. I mean I can't believe we forgot about the 1980s. I mean it just boggles my mind. I mean a number of us I can tell by the color of the hair were around in the 1980s and, then, this is crazy that we -- but, you know what, it was such easy money and it would never end. Banks made their money -- and that's why we are going to see a huge consolidation of the banking industry. So, capital is going to get constrained way beyond what you realize today. And any of you that are waiting, any of you think that we are going to revisit the next two or three years in the short term -- I don't know that we will revisit it in my lifetime and I plan on -- and despite the way I -- I'm not as old as I look. So, we are looking at borrower equity of 20 percent under the 80 percent of cost rule, and as you can see, 75 percent of discounted value would be four million four ten. That's not what you're going to get. You're going to get the lesser of that or 80 percent of cost. So, if Meridian City Council -Planning 8 Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 10 of 25 you look at the bank loan, we have got about 26,400 dollars per lot. So, what considerations do banks have? If we had a subdivision back today and we could sell those lots at 26,400, do you think we would have any takers? I'm not so sure. I know developers that have bought lots that were retail valued higher than this at 22,000. Banks have real estate concentrations. So, we are not concerned about relying purely on the real estate -- all of a sudden we were so happy lending to real estate, because it was just easy money, fee income, most of the developers pay fees, almost nobody else does, so banks love the fee income. But now we are relying on sale of lots for repayment. We don't want to do that. We want excess liquidity in the developer. Next slide. So, the overall risks are obvious, right? Absorption period, how long does it take to sell the lots. You have got the entitlement process that we talked about. The interest rate environment, which we haven't talked about. The construction risk of the process, market conditions and demand for product, which we talked about briefly. And the next slide, Diane. So, what does that mean? It means developers have to have, frankly, really large profit margins. They were just too -- I was going to use the stupid word. They were too uninformed -- they were too naive to realize that those large large margins were necessary to build a war chest of capital, so they could get through the down times. Didn't do it. They thought those margins were just what it was for doing the business. I think the develop -- I think the entitlement process thought those large margins meant that there were lots of things the developer should just do, because they could afford to do it. They could never really afford to do it, they just didn't know it. Significant liquidity for what if scenarios. There are no -- I maybe could come up with a few fingers on one hand of developers that have adequate liquidity and still get development financing today. Maybe. That experience all profession is important and, of course, what we have been talking about is available capital. Today it's a credit desert. Even good projects -- this scenario is really a happy one, because if you took that 215 retail value and said, okay, there is the sweet spot right -- based upon Peter's median income. Man, we can make this thing work. It doesn't work today. It's a good example -- you know, it's reasonable under reasonable circumstances, but these aren't reasonable circumstances. And we can explore that at the end if you'd like about why the banking community just is not able to provide the capital. In the next -- I think it's close to the last slide. So, what does it mean for you and for those of you -- I think it means that risk management will play a much larger roll. I think you guys are morphing to some extent from planners and support services to risk managers and, then, tell me if you disagree, you know, once a marketable plat may no longer be marketable; right? So, it's finished and so you're selling that Kingsbridge lot off Eagle that, you know, wasn't properly designed to begin with, that, you know, it was retail valued at 150 a lot, that you can't sell today for 50. What are you going to do with that? I mean you got letters of credit from banks and a lot of you think that you have got letters of credit from local banks, regional banks -- if you look at those balance sheets, it still remains to be seen whether or not those banks will be here a year from now or 18 months from now. Are you going to be able to draw on those letters of credit when the FDIC takes them over? If you do draw on those letters of credit, do you have the infrastructure in place to go out and get the construction or the landscaping completed? You may find yourselves becoming part time or full time subdivision general contractors, at least somebody. I say you end up with issues -- everything from weeds to taxes. And the Meridian City Council -Planning 8~ Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 11 of 25 realization, frankly, that the developer is broke. The fact of the matter is 99.9 percent of the developers, even those that still drive, you know, the Excursions or the Lexuses, trust me, for the most part they are broke and the buck literally stops here. Taunton: Well, on that positive note -- actually, having been through a few cycles, there certainly are -- there is capital out there that's opportunistic capital and what often happens in market conditions like this is that you will have private capital that will come in and will purchase finished lots for -- repriced at a discounted value and they will often put the lots, as we say in the business value, under the builder. Get paid when the builder sells the house. So, that's -- and the builder, then, is able get some level of financing based on perhaps some additional equity capital that he has attracted to be able to go to a -- go to a lender. And that's -- that's not unusual. I have seen that - have seen two down turns in California and two in Arizona and all of them began to correct on that basis and I suspect we will see that and I think we will also see in this marketplace some larger builders from out of state will come in -- again, opportunistic, they will break up key parcels and will be able to out muscle the -- you know, the local builders that way. So, we are probably going to see a couple of those things. And that's -- and in a way that's good, because that will get the market going, that will get these lots, you know, with houses on them sold and they will be absorbed and we will start to get into a move up market. As Rob says, it always starts with the entry level buyer, somebody that doesn't have a house to sell, someone who has a job and someone didn't get -- you know, get some low mortgage financing and take advantage of the -- you know, the first-time home buyer discount that we have going on right now. So, it's not all -- it's not all doom and gloom, it's just very difficult if you were trying to do a conventional deal, as Rob has described, so -- Perez: But we haven't seen -- and Bob's points are spot on. But what we haven't seen yet is we haven't seen the banks quickly moving those bad assets off their balance sheet. And when the developer comes in from where ever, from Vancouver and says I'll buy these 50 lots -- or I will buy these 100 lots at 18,000 bucks apiece or what happened in Nampa, where a local investor came in and bought fully developed lots at I believe 9,000 dollars a lot. That happened because that was acquired from a bank. The reason that -- well, I won't get into the reason. That's a whole other -- that's a whole other session. The reason that hasn't happened we could explorer sometime, but the fact of the matter is we haven't gotten on that -- that continuum that Bob talked about where all of a sudden you get the capital that's on the sidelines coming in, because there is no visibility, they have to get these screaming deals. That capital hasn't flowed into the system yet, because the banks -- the only way you know you're getting a good deal is not when you're buying it from the developer, it's when you're buying it from the bank, the FDIC. Taunton: Right. And that is happening in other markets that I follow, it's just not occurred here. The next slide is -- is a real estate cycle and we have to thank our friends at Robert Charles Lesser Company for producing this -- this slide and it really -- you know, from my experience it really does speak the truth about real state cycles. I would assume that we are in the down turn phase at the lower right where you see Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 12 of 25 panic and fear and oftentimes the fear continues well into the recovery phase. But just going over to the -- to the left-hand side, the typical -- typical cycle when risk is mispriced, when entitlements are just assumed that we will get those, land values are going up, housing prices are going up. The fundamentals of the real estate business tend to be forgotten. You get into that period of elation as they describe it if the market is turning out -- we might think of that as, you know, 2003 to 2005 and, then, you get into exuberance where everybody says it's different this time. Classic phrase. It's never different. It follows the same sort of pattern, but there is a false belief that it's -- that it's different and as Rob said, lenders provide money in the -- when the S&Ls were going well in Arizona when I was there, we used to say, you know, the S&Ls would give you a loan if you could barely fog a mirror. And it pretty much was like that. People who should not have been getting -- getting financing did and, of course, it ultimately ended up in a significant correction. So, what happens in the -- at the top of the market is, of course, home building has been very successful. Industrial, retail, office uses, which tend to lag home building, start to, you know, enjoy some very good times, but as you get into the downturn phase, that's when residential is first hit and residential is the leading indicator. The other -- other primary land uses are lagging. And what's very dangerous about that exuberant stage is if you do not have perFect timing you can get annihilated. If you're not able to develop the property, get it to market, and recover your costs before the market turns, and it inevitably will, you're going to be in a difficult situation. And there is some very very good companies that have done everything right, except they had terrible market timing and as a result are either out of business or are trying to sell their assets at a greatly reduced rate. So, this cycle tends to repeat itself all the time. You know, the period of time can be different, but I suspect that we are -- you know, we are in the down turn phase. That may go on for a year or two before we turn up into the recovery phase, although typically most people aren't aware of when the market turns until long after it turns. You have to be very -- very close to the market. The savvy investors, the people that are on the side lines with cash, they are watching these cycles very closely, because if they missed a turn, that's too bad. You don't want to be ahead of the turn. So, if you can -- you come in just after the turn, you're going to enjoy the greatest investment opportunity that you will have. And, unfortunately, it just means that some people are going to get -- going to get hurt in the process. Next slide. Nelson: So, just as a little bit of a summary of Rob has talked about, but it's -- it's important I think to make the distinction that those factors that certainly local government can have some influence on and, then, there is some that are way beyond those. And what can be controlled by public agencies, certainly the process and the timing -- timing as you probably always heard, is very critical to the developer, it means money. The cost of processing applications can be control by the agency and certainly public agencies that have adequate resources in terms of technical and knowledgeable staff and up to date and codes that are effective are important things that the agency can control. And in your policies and regulations having avision -- a clear vision and having policies that incorporate that vision about where you're going and what -- and how that might impact a particular piece of property, is certainly something that the city can control. Did you want to go over the other -- Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 13 of 25 Kushlan: Probably these were well covered by Rob and are of no surprise. Labor maybe being the only other one that could be added on there of other factors that are outside of the control of the developer and outside of the control of the public agency and so I think the -- it's, again, just an awareness issue to understand that there are factors that are going to be changing, could be a really rapid change if the market changes quickly and the business plan was developed based on a different market, that could be disastrous. But there could be minor changes that are occumng throughout that it's just great to have as much cooperation and accommodation from the public agency as possible. Flexibility and development agreement, et cetera, all that can go a long way to addressing some of these unanticipated changes. Nelson: Bob, did you want to speak to this -- Taunton: You know, the developers often come in with preliminary -- preliminary plans and, then, later on they view those -- those plans as being very rigid and how, you know, they aren't accepting of any additional desires that might come -- come before them -- come to them from the approving agency or from the citizens. You know, developers have to build that kind of flexibility into their -- into their business plan and their portfolio's performance, but often that's -- that's not the case and I'm sure that the city has heard some say that. So, there is -- there is a lot of responsibility on the side of the developing industry as well to really know -- know their market, know their business and to have, you know, enough in their business plan to face some contingencies which no doubt will occur in the process. Just this last -- this last slide, getting back to what I said at the outset, that the needs and desires of the private sector are often very aligned with those of the public sector, it's just that perhaps we don't understand that or perhaps they are out of sequence, but, you know, the things that the public agencies are looking for certainty, fairness, policies and regulations, no public controversy, which would be wonderful for all of us, I think. Those are the same things that developers are looking for and if we could kind of match up better in how -- how we work together, that would, I think, you know, make the process a better process for both -- both groups and insure that the product that the city has built in the community will be the kind of product that the city is looking for. Kushlan: It's just been my experience certainty and, you know, no surprises are the most critical factors that we can all achieve or try to achieve in this process and when you have got that in place I think you avoid the nimbyism and it avoids delay and cost for developers and frustration for everyone. That can be achieved if we keep in mind sort of the guidelines, the steps for the planning and development process and they are very logical interrelated steps that sometimes I think we tend to forget that we start from that policy level and as we go down to each subsequent step there is really less -- there should be really less discretion, i.e., that means that you can hand this off more easily to your staff and that it should be into more and more details. I provided these slides not necessarily to go through all of them, but there is more of a take away piece for you in terms of, you know, once the Comprehensive Plan is adopted at each one of these stages it's important to keep in mind what's already been decided and what's on the table for discussion at that point and the more that you can adhere to this process and Meridian City Council -Planning 8~ Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 14 of 25 communicate to your public, who I know a lot of times has a difficult time in this, I think it will make -- will build in that certainty that we all want to achieve. The most current example of this and probably some of you may be following. this is Elmore county, stepping to a Conditional Use Permit a nuclear power plant, before they had really talked about the policy of where do we want industrial land, number one, is employment based on nuclear power plant the kind of employment that we want in the county. So, before those kind of policy discussions had occurred, there were stuck in this looking at a site specific proposal on a conditional use and as we know it created a lot of havoc and now they are going back and going through those major policy questions first. So, you know, as we move through zoning and subdivision, being clear about what's already been decided and you know you have got good plans and codes in place and so it's a matter of, you know, building confidence within your process, your decision process within your staff and, then, communicating that confidence to the public at large, so that you don't get into a position of requiring a developer, for example, to provide you with site plan at the time of zoning, which really costs them a lot of detail and money before they are really in a place to do that. So, that's the purpose of these and I hope you can just take them and look at them at your leisure. So, this is our last slide before a pitch for ULI and questions. Taunton: Again, ULI is a nonprofit education and research institute. We have a foundation, we don't have a pack, we don't lobby, we don't litigate and this foundation funds all kinds of initiatives. I think many in the room are familiar with the advisory panel that was here looking at ACHD a couple of years ago and prior and there were two other panels, one in 2005 and another that might have been 1995, something like that. Those are -- those are funded by this foundation. We have spent a lot of time on policy and practice trying to bring the -- you know, the policies that ULI believes in to the -- to the local area and that's really how district councils came about where we deliver the goods at the local level, so to speak. One of the things, as I mentioned, we -- we have as a big priority for us is community outreach doing presentations like this. We are also going to be, as a group, teaching a real estate fundamental course at Boise State in the winter semester as an elective in the MBA program, which we hope will lead to a master's degree in real estate, which the university is interested in doing. We have -- are undertaking a Mayor's forum initiative. You may recall that in April we had a Mayor's forum, we had five of the mayors and talked about issues that they were facing in their city. We are about to get that underway and we will -- it will be our own little ULI Idaho advisory panel where we will -- we will identify some topic areas and we will use our local expertise, as well as looking at other communities and other resources within ULI to provide some recommendations for solutions to development in the downtown. So, I would invite any of you that -- from the public sector that would be interested in joining, we have a very favorable membership arrangement for public sector folks and that's abig -- a big emphasis in ULI is to bring the public sector -- more of the public sector into membership and so that we can be very inclusive in terms of how we look at issues and develop solutions and initiatives that we can take back to our local communities. So, with that we'd like to answer any questions you might have. If you want to get into -- have Rob explain the banking industry, I'm sure he would be happy to do that. He may not have enough time, but, at any rate, we are open for questions. Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 15 of 25 De Weerd: Council or Commissioners, do you have any questions? Rountree: Madam Mayor? De Weerd: Uh-huh. Rountree: A question for your process and your presentation. A lot of the information certainly is -- is not new to us. We see it every Tuesday night. But I appreciate how you have couched some of these things. I particularly like that needs and desires display and how we do align up and there was a couple things on the local side and one on the developer's side that kind of caught my interest. One was honesty and that sort of thing on the local government side. On the developers side is predictability. We know the developers, typically, that come in here and they are very predictable. We know the good ones and we know the ones that will be back time and time and time again with multiple changes and consternation with the city, because we are making it tough for them. I guess my question to you -- are you taking this presentation out to the private sector as well? Because there are things that would make their life a lot easier in the process if they would be forthright and not have cities, local units of governments, have to develop ordinances to make them forthright, which is where we end up a lot of times. Taunton: If I may respond. Thanks, Councilman. I think that's a great idea and certainly from, you know, my career I have encountered those kinds of developers as well and I think that it's really -- and I have often said it's important for the developers to understand the role that the public sector plays, what their constraints are, how they go about their business and so I think that's a great idea, because that would help to -- you know, as I said, you know, align the interest much better if we could -- if we could convince some of those developers to do their business in a different way. Kushlan: I would just say that -- Councilman Rountree, that that's what ULI really is all about, it's trying to explore the best practices for the private sector, as well as the public sector and so, you know, we are trying to encourage membership and get the word out and have programs that are relevant to them and raise the bar a little bit in the development industry. Rountree: Madam Mayor, if I might. De Weerd: Yes. Rountree: Not a follow up, but another question on this same chart, but something I see on the developer's side is flexibility and at least from my position in the work I try to do and the help I try to provide staff, is that that's where we need to be as well. Do you have any sage advice in how to build flexibility into ordinances, how to build flexibility in to processes? We have done some good things, I think our design guidelines have Meridian City Council -Planning 8 Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 16 of 25 been developed in terms of being very flexible and not hard and fast rules, but anything you have come across in your work that would help us and direct us in the future? Nelson: Councilman, I had a very positive experience working with your staff on a similar issue where we were able to develop particular conditions into a development agreement that would both give predictability and accountability with a range of options and give some flexibility. For example, if there is a change in square footage within a particular range of five or ten percent, then, that can be accepted if reviewed by staff and doesn't have to go back to City Council. That type of example gives flexibility, but also gives accountability, because you know going in what the range of the situation is. You know what was expected, but you also know what's possible. And the more ability you have to work with staff on minor adjustments versus having to come back to a public hearing process, the better from a developer's perspective. Rountree: Madam Mayor? Perez: Yeah. I would say that that really comes -- I have had similar experiences, by the way, and I would say that that comes from -- to some extent decentralizing decision making process. That does mean that you have to have a -- you know, a well trained staff and a staff that understands the extent to which they can be flexible, but I think, you know, empowering the staff to the extent that you're comfortable with that, it goes a long way to getting things done and I, too, have had a development agreement situation where, you know, we had a give and take and it worked very well. Rountree: Madam Mayor, just a follow up. De Weerd: Yes. Rountree: You have indicated two instances where it works rather well and I agree, but are you saying the marketplace accepting that, we still get folks that say, well, if I have to negotiate that issue I just want to come to Council. Perez: You know, I have always taken the position -- and I know Bill and Caleb are aware of this -- that if we don't have Council's support we really don't want to do that, only in rare circumstances. I think part of the problem is that a lot of -- and I see this, by the way, on the banking side, a lot of people who are not professionals in this business got in the business and they didn't really understand the professional qualities of the business and so forme it was -- in the banking side -- and I think it's similar to yours, it's a matter of very clearly setting expectations and once the expectations were set, you know, oftentimes we will get the clients that come back two and three times and say, well, yeah, but, you know, what -- and what we opted to do is we opted to really just stick with those folks that were professional. And we probably had some latitude that you don't have in our profession, but I think when you go to see now the folks that are left, there is going to be a level of professionalism that maybe you didn't enjoy when there was a broader range of people in the business. Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 17 of 25 Rountree: Thank you. Moe: Madam Mayor? De Weerd: Mr. Moe. Moe: More so because I'm curious, on the same screen there you have got cost effectiveness in regards to the public agencies and not within the developer, what they would want themselves. In my day job I deal with developers on a daily basis and that's all they care about and so I'm kind of curious as to why that didn't get shifted over into that column as well. Kushlan: I think we were trying to focus on the development process. Certainly developers and what they do want cost effectiveness. But just in the process itself. Moe: Okay. Thank you. Hoaglun: Madam Mayor? De Weerd: Yes, Mr. Hoaglun. Hoaglun: Question that I have is what, if any, role should P&Z or Council look at in terms of the market and let me give you an example. For example, we have open space requirements and you're going to set aside X percent in this development for open space. We have changed that ordinance and, then, someone comes in, they were under the old ordinance, they come in, they make a change, now they are to adopt to the new ordinance, but yet what the financing, what the arrangement was, the market conditions, when they were in there they done their numbers, they worked with their bank or they run it through, now they come in, they want to make a change and we say now you have got to fall under this new ordinance and increase the space, do we or do we not, because -- I mean they are grown-ups, it's their money, but at the same time that regulation may break that particular project and that's -- that's a tough struggle for me on those situations, so your thoughts on something like that? Perez: My response is one of materiality. I mean, you know, how -- did you go from, you know, pick a number, did you go from 13 percent open space to 25 percent open space? I mean I -- it's just -- I don't know the materiality of that. But if -- you know, there should be enough room in these projects that if it's penciled out that it could accommodate some minor changes. If it doesn't, you know, it -- it probably shouldn't be financed. But, you know, that's a new project today and if you're living with one that -- that is challenged financially, maybe you need to look at that and ask from a pragmatic standpoint do I want this thing to get completed, to what extend do we really want this to go forward. And I -- today I think there is some practicalities that maybe didn't apply. I know you want to have some consistency in how you apply things, but these are really extraordinary times and I think, you know, that's going to be back to some of the flexibility. But if it's material, you know, certainly that can make a big difference in a Meridian City Council -Planning 8 Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 18 of 25 project. If it's -- I mean I'm going to use a number of if it's, you know, two to five percent differential, if that project can't -- can't provide a reasonable return to the developer and still accommodate that change, then, it's probably too skinny. De Weerd: It went from five percent to ten percent. Perez: I don't know. It's a -- you would have to look at the numbers. I mean it's just -- it's acase by case thing, I think. Hoaglun: And that's the question, Madam Mayor and folks, is the fact that should we be looking at those numbers? Should we -- you know, because that is a private transaction between two parties and the developer and the banker, but yet for some -- and they may tell us, well, that -- I can't go there, yet we want ten percent, because we think that's the level and the quality of development that we want for our community. So, that's a good thing, but at the same -- and so as folks come on board they know that those are the rules and they are going to have to play by those rules and they can pencil things out by that. But it's the folks who were in under the old rules and come in and we have changed the rules and they make that change, that's -- that's the difficulty and that's -- and there is really no easy answer on that I don't think. I was hoping you guys had a silver bullet, but I guess not, so -- Taunton: Well, if I may make a comment, often when open space is -- is increased I realize that most developers would come in and say, well, I'm -- you know, this is a lower utilization of the land in terms of, you know, developing it. From a market perspective, it may enhance, you know, the project. My experience has been that lots that back up to open space are worth a lot more, so there may be -- you know, the added -- the premium aspect associated with those lots or houses may offset, you know, the additional land and there may be a way to design it so that there is -- you know, change the configuration and so on that -- where you can get some efFciencies and really not have a hardship. So, that needs to be looked at as well. Nelson: I want to add to that, too, that perhaps given the severe conditions that some developers face at this point, that there is more reason for flexibility and consideration now on certain projects -- and I realize that's a judgment call that you make -- have to make every time and it's hard to know how far to press there, but there may be more consideration as needed now for unanticipated conditions than going forward and -- because I do think that's a tough decision and I do think it's important to make those changes going forward to improve your ordinances and your plans if you want to require more open space start requesting it as soon as possible, but knowing that those conditions that some of the developers in this transition point are facing, you know, any additional exaction, warranted or not, could be the tipping point for them. De Weerd: Now, I have a question and it's something that's coming up more and more often right now and it's coming from our citizens and probably the predictability on the developer's side and where they want to invest and maybe they have already gone through the entitlement process and now because of market conditions they are selling - Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 19 of 25 - some of our subdivisions are selling out to a lower end developer. Neighbors who bought their house at a significant cost are now finding their neighbor is a low end home and I know that Council has had some concern about that, has been tying elevations onto subdivisions and that sort of thing, but any prospective, advice, or comments on how to protect both the developer who probably still has lots to sell from -- and how to project their values to those that the neighbor subdivision that just flipped and now they are going to further devalue the other subdivision, if you know what I'm saying. I could probably use names, but I'd like to avoid that. Taunton: Well, I'm going to start off, the -- often in the -- in the subdivisions there are CC&Rs which will establish a certain minimum house -- home size and that -- and that, obviously, can be privately enforced by any of the residents that are -- that are in that subdivision. So, that may be a control mechanism. I -- you know, I certainly recall trying to be an opportunistic buyer as the Phoenix market was coming back and lots that were very well located, but needed to be -- the product needed to be a different -- a different housing type and price and, you know, once you got in and looked at the covenants and talked to the community association, it was a nonstarter. You just weren't going to take that on. So, those lots kind of struggled until the market finally cycled back. But checking with the -- checking, you know, the covenants might be an interesting thing. Obviously, the city doesn't enforce those, it's aprivate -- a private covenant. De Weerd: We don't even look at them. Taunton: But it may be the solution for some of those residences. De Weerd: That didn't help. Perez: I mean, Mayor, I -- you know, I happen to know one of those subdivisions where that took place and it went to a production builder and it actually was tied to the 22,000 dollars a lot example that I gave and, you know, the option is to just have a bunch of weeds there, because at the end of the day that's -- you build to where the market is and the market's going to be in the starter and the move up and that's not going to satisfy that neighbor that says now that's a half million house next door, but I just see no way around that short of what I was thinking the same thing, Bob, is having somebody within that subdivision try to enforce the CC&Rs. Nelson: Mayor, I -- this is not a direct answer to that question. I think that they have shown that we don't have a good answer to that question -- a good solution, but I -- I do think that there might be an opportunity to prevent some of that happening in some locations. I see the City of Meridian as having an interesting opportunity where you have a number of platted lots that are in different levels of being approved and being improved and I think there could be an opportunity where there is an opportunistic investor to come in and replat to actually lump together some of these separated subdivisions and replat them into a more comprehensive development where you have more opportunities for open space and connectivity of trails and school sites and so I Meridian City Council - Planning ~ Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 20 of 25 don't -- I'm not sure how easy it is to position yourself to allow that to happen, but one suggestion is to be on top of your inventory and I talked to Phil about this a little bit before that, you know, just taking the opportunity, if you have staff time available, to inventory carefully what you do have. You may be able to put yourself in a sales pitch position with investors or buyers or developers that are approaching the city to say, hey, did you consider trying to consolidate this area or this is a high priority for the city, maybe we can even help with some of the infrastructure if you were willing to take on this area. That's a more proactive way on a bigger scale that you. might prevent that -- the developers that are going under and the land that's sitting vacant from sitting that way. Taunton: There is one other thought and it really speaks to the design of communities, what ULI supports and what -- you know, it's really supported by a great many developers -- is to have a variety of housing types, sizes, price ranges, in a -- in a community, as opposed to a homogenous, you know, lot size and product -- product type where it's -- the square footage of the house determines what the pricing differential is, but every lot is 8,000 square feet. That can help in these kinds of conditions where there already is an acceptance in the community that there is going to be a different housing product than perhaps what they -- what they have. And I have seen that -- those kinds of communities whether the storm a bit better, you know, in a down tum, because there was always something to -- to market and sell at the appropriate price point, because there were different products, different lot sizes that had been approved. A homogenous subdivision doesn't have that flexibility, but it's nothing you can do now if it doesn't have that -- you know, that attribute. But, anyway, it may be something to keep in mind as we go into the next cycle. De Weerd: Any other questions from Commission or Council? Newton-Huckabay: Madam Mayor? De Weerd: Yes. Newton-Huckabay: I have one for Mr. Perez. You were making comments to absorption and that type of thing and I am curious if there is a -- if that's tracked statistically, nationally, locally, kind of like median income, absorption rate for the different types of development and where a person would access that information. Perez: Sure. Sure. You know, appraisers that routinely appraise residential development or commercial developments for that matter, will have those statistics. The problem is that today the absorption is so extraordinarily low that if you take most -- most recent experience and use that as a basis for forecasting absorption, you literally get nothing. You may get a lot of -- you know, a lot a month or a lot every two or three months, so, you know, historic absorption there is -- that's -- I can give you a number of names and I would be happy to do that, that could kind of give you absorption as recent as the data that they collect. But if you -- if you look at the last few months and try to use that to forecast forward, I mean you -- it's based on, obviously, size of the lot, it's Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 21 of 25 based on price of the lot, it's based on location, and the appraiser takes those -- all those variables into account and tries to find comp -- lots that are comparable to the one that's being reviewed and say given the experience we have had with these comparable lots, this is the absorption that you can experience and that's, again, based upon all those factors and other amenities, but, you know, today it's just so difficult, because the market demand has been so weak that I won't know what you would really get. I mean you -- but they are available, because appraisals are still happening today as banks get these subdivisions back, they are required by law to reappraise them to determine current value and so appraisers have a number of statistics along those lines for any type of lot that you're looking for. Newton-Huckabay: I was thinking more along the lines like you would track performance as, you know, say an investment, if absorption rates are tracked as a critical statistic over history like that and you see some consistency such as what you would see with the stock market or occupancy rating, things like that. Perez: Oh. Oh. Newton-Huckabay: Not necessarily -- obviously, anything short term right now is going to be bad advice to make long term decisions on. Taunton: There are some services that you can subscribe to that actually specialize in the housing market. There is one that you read about occasionally in the paper. I don't know if I should mention the name, because I don't want to sound like I'm advertising for it, but it's called -- it's called Metro Study and they are in a variety of cities in -- in the United States and they do quarterly reports that you can subscribe to. A lot of the large builders will subscribe to that. You know, there is other -- other groups in other cities as well in the west, but those folks can -- have been doing it for a long time, as opposed to asking somebody to do a custom analysis for you. They have that kind of information and can, you know, portray just about anything out of the statistics that they have been collecting for a period of time. And their data, by the way, in this market is relatively new. They -- they cover about 80 percent of the lots sold in America. I mean they really have agreat -- and I have contacts there, so Diane or whoever knows how to get a hold of me, but I would be happy to get you in contact with Mike Castleman who owns Metro Study. But, again, their experience in our market is limited, but if you look at overall markets that they cover, they could probably look at that and say, you know what, if we look at the last five years in all the markets we covered, X numbers of lots were sold over that time frame and equate that to X absorption per month. Again, I don't know what that would necessarily get you, but you could use that as kind of a 60,000 foot level of absorptions over the last ten years has been about X a month, given the markets that we study. Newton-Huckabay: Okay. Thank you. De Weerd: Anna, did you have a question? Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 22 of 25 Canning: So, one of the things I asked Diane to actually bring up and, then, I looked to see if there was any reaction up here and they didn't react, but I want to grill you all on it, because it's important to me, but in the -- the list of -- that was less predictable, so you got annexation at the top and you have got building plans down at the bottom, we do require site plans with our annexations and that's because I got here and I realized, hey, Council -- about the only time they have much power is that question of annexation and zoning and so I push -- I push so that I know that they, Commission and Council, have the information they need and the developer has an expectation of what will be approved. Now, we try and be flexible, as Rob attested to. Thank you very much, by the way. But -- but how do we get around that? I mean it's such a property right state, how do you ever say, oh, we will go ahead and zone you, we -- we don't really know what you will do, but, you know, go ahead, have the zoning, we will wait and see what you come up with. Taunton: If I could respond to that. Certainly the developer is going to tell you, well, this is our best guess right now of what -- what the market conditions are going to be when we bring this product to market and so this is our concept plan. But if there can be -- if there can be flexibility in that approval that, as Deb was talking about, you know, tied to a development agreement where there is some -- some flexibility in the concept plan, because it just -- as they get into engineering, detailed engineering, which they wouldn't have done at that stage, there may be some issues that come up, you know, if they are dealing with ACHD there could be some ~ -- some factors that they didn't consider in their concept plan. So, I think most -- most developers would accept the requirement to do that as long as there is in the development agreement some -- some level of flexibility based on conditions that may not be, you know, within their control, for example. Canning: So, is that pretty common, Bob, to have -- have a concept plan in other states? Taunton: Yes. Canning: Do most of them require it? Okay. Taunton: Yeah. It's certainly been my experience. In some annexations it goes to a specific planning and you know what the difference is there. That is just -- in my view is just beyond reality in terms of the cost to prepare that and it's -- and, again, it's just -- it's just the developer's view at the moment before they have even -- they have gone through all the other agencies that they have to go through and have, you know, detailed designs and engineering figured out. I mean there is -- inevitably there is something that just surprises you that -- that if you're locked into a specific plan with very little flexibility, it's really difFicult. Perez: Yeah. In a manufacturing cycle in a typical manufacturing, because you guys are manufacturing lots and the manufacturing cycle is so short for everything else in real estate, I mean the light -- the cycle production is just so long and there is much that can Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 23 of 25 change that that flexibility is critical, but I -- I dealt with Idaho, Utah, Nevada, eastern Washington -- I think that was when I managed the real estate division for my prior bank and site concept plan was very common. Canning: Okay. Nelson: I think, Anna, just to add one more point, I think that's a really tough balancing act for the city and the developer to get to that right balance and each time it's going to be a case specific, you know, evaluation of how much trust do you have in that developer, how much information do you have to support the concept? Do you have a lot of architectural designs and, you know, what can you -- can you lock in. Sometimes the developer will need flexibility on different things for a particular project. They may know exactly the quality of home they can provide, for example, if they are a home builder developer, but they might not know exactly where they want their road to be in the later part of a development and so there are certain -- for each case you might find specific things that will satisfy the city from a quality perspective that you can lock in or get it as drilled down as you can, but there has just got to be a very open -- getting to Councilman Rountree's point, a very open and honest exchange back and forth between those parties each time to try to figure out what right balance is. Taunton: I would agree with Deb, Anna. In the scale of the application, if it's a longer term project with multiple phases, you know, again, you need to have -- there needs to be flexibility. Perhaps the developer can say, okay, our first phase of development we are pretty confident it's going to look like this, but we aren't sure about the later phases, so you might have a bit more detail with -- you know, with what may be the initial phase and, then, it gets, you know, a little fuzzier for the later phases, because over time, as Rob was saying, the production cycle is so long and market cycles can vary so significantly, that you need to have -- have built into the flexibility. But the standards -- the development standards, the expectation that the city has of the quality of development, that certainly can be in there, but it doesn't have to be precisely, you know, related to, you know, a lot and road configuration that's going to be the same, you know, ten years down the road, but you could -- you know, the design standards, architectural scenes, that landscaping standards, those kinds of things, you know, often those can be committed to up front without a lot of difficulty, maybe not actual housing designs, but you can -- you can begin to get a sense of the character of the houses in design standards. Zaremba: Madam Mayor? De Weerd: Yes, Mr. Zaremba. Zaremba: I think I'm struggling with one aspect of this and I struggle with it every time we have things come before us and that is the contrast between flexibility and fairness and my feeling is I have always considered it part of my job to make sure that the playing field is level among competitors. It isn't our job to make their project work for them, but as has been mentioned, we have some developers in the city that apparently Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 24 of 25 do their due diligence, they understand the market cycles, they have prepared for the market cycles, they bring in a project that looks like it would be a nice project for Meridian. They never come back and ask for changes to it, contrasted to the ones that are maybe less professional and get themselves in trouble and do constantly come and ask us to make changes. How is that fair to the one that's doing it right for us to be so flexible with the ones that are getting themselves into trouble and Ihave -- as I say, how do we keep the playing field level and not be unfair to the people that have done everything they are supposed to? Taunton: My particular view on it -- and I will invite the rest of the panel to answer, is that you almost have to look past who the applicant is. This is a land use approval, the approvals are going to run with the land, you presume that the people that are the applicants will also develop the property, but that may not be the case. So, in some ways if you take -- take the personalities out. Now, obviously, if you're dealing with a long term developer in Meridian that, you know, has a great track record, that sort of thing, I mean that's -- that's a nice position for the city to be in, but Iwould --Iwould think that, you know, trying to take who the applicant is out of -- out of the picture and really think about, you know, the project approval and what the conditions would be and so one is a better -- is a better starting place and being consistent. Iwould agree with that. Kushlan: I think we had this discussion when we were writing the code, which is that you can -- you can write the rules to prevent a hundred percent of something occurring or you can take that 80-20 rule and assume there is always going to be some that just can't quite get it right and write the rule to kind of, you know, get at least 80 percent of them to follow the -- the way you want to go. So, it's a good balancing act, though I haven't found a solution completely to it and -- but I think Bob's right, you really do have to -- as much as you can ignore what's happened in the past and treat somebody as a fresh start every time they come to the door. Nelson: I think the more you can lock in the quality through your conditions for everyone the better and that's -- that's not an easy thing to do. But as much as you can think about in advance what is your vision for the area and how do we best accomplish that, it usually isn't from the real regimented I want to see the plat right now, that usually isn't what gets you the vision, it's the location of the roads and the fire hydrants isn't really, you know, about what you're concerned about and so I think you can get commitments on the things that really matter, about the open space, about the quality of design, about the mix of use of housing, about the connectivity. I think that those are conditions you can equally impose and should impose on everyone. But I just think the reality is you're always going to have some level of subjectivity and that's why you're elected officials, I guess. De Weerd: Wow. That was reassuring. Thank you. Any questions from staff? Commission? Well, I would like to thank you for joining us this evening and sharing information, seeing how we can have better dialogue and communication and a better understanding of it. I look at how our community is developed and it's taken a team and Meridian City Council -Planning & Zoning Commission Joint Meeting August 18, 2009 Page 25 of 25 it goes from pre-application through the process to even the permitting, the inspecting, and all of it and we are all in this to have a successful community and Meridian has had a huge transformation over the last decade and we have seen some large improvements through predictability, through a stronger code, and through more consistent decision making, more staff level flexibility in making some determinations as you had touched upon, but I think as long as we can continue to keep the communication lines open in all directions to the -- to our customers, to our staff, to the elected officials, our Commissioners, we are all going to win. And we appreciate you joining us this evening and sharing that information and continue to give us feedback -- we like positive, but certainly we -- we know that we have opportunities to improve our processes that I know our staff stands ready to work with a community and find better ways that -- more efficient ways of doing things and the only way we are going to do that is with good information. Taunton: Well, on behalf of the panel thank you very much for the invitation to appear before you and we hope that there was value in it. I guess the one thing I would leave you with is that in spite of the market conditions today there will be a tum around. We will get back into a very busy time and now it's just agreat -- great opportunity for the City of Meridian to -- and the great staff that you have to work on your processes and be in that much better position when -- when the recovery takes place. De Weerd: Thank you. Councilman Rountree, did you have something? Rountree: No. I agree with those last comments. De Weerd: Okay. Thank you so much. Okay. Council, we are -- and Commission, we are at the end of our agenda. I would entertain a motion to adjourn. Rountree: So moved. Bird: Second. De Weerd: Motion and second. All all in favor? MOTION CARRIED: ALL AYES. MEETING ADJOURNED AT 7:00 P.M. (AUDIO RECORDING ON FILE OF T TAMMY de~~/~E°~tl~; ~, -~,y "'% ff ~' . Fo ~T: c~9 CSI 1 ,,,~,,,~,'c®U~ , oo~,,\,,,, ,~,~„~„~ PROCEEDINGS) DATE APPROVED ~_ CITY CLERK