Special Joint Mtg 12/16/04 (2)Page 1 of 1
Wilt Berg
From: Karen Doherty ikdoherty~dohertyeng.com]
Sent: Friday, December 10, 2004 4:41 PM
To: 'Chad BeIP; 'Wig Berg ; 'David Bieter ; 'Keith Bird ; 'Vem Bisterfeldt ; 'David Bivens'; 'Diana Cavigliano';
'Dustin Christopherson ; 'Elaine Clegg'; 'Sean Conklin ; 'Tammy de Weerd ; 'Karen Doherty'; 'Christine
Donnell'; '3cott Dowdy ; 'Susan Eastlake ; 'David Eberle ; 'David Ekern'; 'Ted Ellis ; 'Tom Erlebach ; 'John
Evans'; 'Kel6 Fairless'; 'Wayne Forrey ; 'John Franden'; 'Robert Freilich'; 'Mary Gabriel'; 'Peggy Gardner';
'Steve Guerber'; 'Tracy Hall'; 'Sheri Horton ; 'Linda Ihli'; 'Zella Johnson ; 'Mary Jordan ; 'Jeff Lang';
mlauer(d~ourplanningworks.com; 'Dee Mahaffey ; 'Jerome Mapp ; 'Tammy McDaniel ; 'Nancy Merritt ; `Nathan
Mitchell ; 'Jerry Nielson'; 'Colleen Nixon ; 'Scott Nordstrom'; 'Dean Obray ; 'Traci Osborn ; 'Judy Peavey-
Derr ; 'Steve Price'; 'Craig Quintana'; 'Jade Riley ; 'Charee Rountree'; 'Lynne Sedlacek'; 'Alan Shealy ;
'Barbara Skopec'; 'Susan Slaughter ; 'AAatt Stoll'; 'Dave Szplett ; 'Fred Tliman ; 'Charles Trainor ; 'Cathy
Ward'; 'Shaun Wardle ; 'Kandy Weaver'; 'Phill Worth'; 'David Wynkoop" 'Rick Yzaguirre'
Cc: 'Heather Garrott; 'Karen Doherty ; 'Eric Hackett ; 'Christina Nemec'
Subject: Blueprint for Good Growth -Consortium Member Agency Meeting -Dec. 16 - 9:30 -11:30 AM -COMPASS
offices
Please find the attached agenda for our upcoming Blueprint for Good Growth Consortium Member Agency Group meeting
to be held on:
Dec 16, 9:30 -11:30 AM, COMPASS offices
The fast hour will be a joint meeting with Communities in Motion for adion on the growth scenarios. A separate Blueprint
for Good Growth Consortium meeting will follow at 10:30 AM. We appreciate your help and look forward to seeing you.
Please RSVP by close of business on Tuesday, December 14 by reply email or to Doherty & Associates at 336-0420.
Please also visit the projed website for updated project history and background data. Thanks for your input and contact
us at 336-0420 if you have any questions.
Respectfully,
Karen Doherty, P.E.
Project Coordinator
Blueprint for Good Growth
www. b luepri ntforgoodgrowth. com
email kdoherty~a dohertyeng.com
Go Doherty & Associates, Inc.
575 E Parkcenter Blvd, Suite 200
Boise, ID 83706
ph (208) 336-0420
fax (208) 336-2407
cell (208) 863-2746
website www.dohert~ no.com
12/13/2004
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Special Joint Meeting
Blueprint for Good Growth -Consortium Member Agency
Communities In Motion -Steering Committee
Thursday, December 16, 2004 9:30 A.M. to 11:30 A.M.
COMPASS Office 800 South Industry Way, Meridian, ID 83642
-_-------- --- AGENDA
1. Scenario Process Overview
Michael Lauer/Phil) Worth 9:30 A.M.
2. Description of Regional Scenarios'`
• Trend and Bookend Scenarios
• Workshop Scenarios
3. Discussion of Scenarios
Michael Lauer/Phil) Worth 9:35 A.M.
Michael Lauer/Phil) Worth 10:00 A.M.
• Plausible Ranges of Growth Concepts
• Possible Transportation Solution Concepts
4. Overview of Analysis Approach
Michael Lauer/Phil) Worth 10:20 A.M.
5. Next Steps Michael Lauer/Phill Worth 10:25 A.M.
The consultants will be seeking consent to proceed with the scenarios and analysis methodology.
BEGIN BLUEPRINT FOR GOOD GROWTH SEPARATE MEETING
6. Confirmation of Technical Group Members Karen Doherty 10:30 A.M.
Three new members are recommended for the Technical Group. Confirmation will be sought
from the Member Agencies for appointment of Elizabeth Conner, Russ Dane (Realtor), and Tim
Breuer (Ada County Parks and Waterways). The Consortium will also be asked for guidance on
appointment of a Contractor representative to the Technical Group
7. Project Status/Payment for Outstanding Invoices Karen Doherty 10:35 A.M.
Karen will discuss the overall project status and outstanding consultant invoices.
8. Status of Consortium Non-Profit Entity Creation Steve Price 10:45 A.M.
9. Proposed Interim Ordinances Discussion Dr. Robert Freilich 10:55 A.M.
Members will be asked to provide feedback on their entity's decision whether or not to adopt the
Interim Ordinances.
10. Upcoming Meeting Dates Karen Doherty 11:25 A.M.
* Attachments are included in the transmittal for this item. **All times are approximate.
Blueprint for Good Growth - c% Doherty & Associates - 575 E. Parkcenter Blvd, Suite 200 -Boise, ID 83706
Business (208) 336-0420 -Fax (208) 336-2407 -Email kdohertvCa~dohertveng.com
www. b/ueprintforgoodgrowth. com
L:\Doherty&Assoc\Blueprint for Good Growth Coordination\Consortium\member_agency_agenda_121604.DOC
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SCENARIO STORIES
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
A scenario is a compilation of concepts (or strategies) for how and where growth may occur and
what forms of transportation may develop. All of the scenarios assume the same amount of
future growth. The purpose of creating many scenarios is to test a variety of concepts for
transportation and land use development to determine which prove beneficial and which have
weaknesses that make them ineffective. The best concepts from several scenarios can be drawn
together to create the strongest set of strategies for accommodating the anticipated future growth
and achieving the goals of the region.
SOURCES OF SCENARIOS
An initial set of six scenarios was developed through two primary sources. Three of the scenarios
were created through a committee process that involved technicians and policymakers. The
Trend Scenario was developed to represent a continuation of growth patterns that have occurred
over the past 7 or 8 years. Two "bookend scenarios" were created to represent wide fluctuations
away from the trend that would still be considered plausible growth scenarios. The other three
scenarios were created from the concepts conceived during our public workshop process
facilitated during November of 2004. Nearly 500 citizens from the six-county area participated in
the workshops and produced well over 40 maps representing various ways in which the region
could grow. Titles given to the scenarios produced from the workshops are: Workshop Average
Scenario, Compact Linear Development Scenario, and Dispersed Satellite Cities Scenario.
Provided below are descriptions of six scenarios created for early testing and analysis. Each
description tells a story of how the region may develop over the next quarter of a century, in
terms of land use and transportation. Additional scenarios will be developed after these initial six
are tested and analyzed. Elected officials, agency staff, stakeholders, and the general public will
contribute to the development of these additional scenarios, as they did with the initial set of six.
TREND SCENARIO -Status Quo
Housing and employment growth continues in a manner consistent with recent historical trends
Scenario Summary:
• Land Use
o Based on the amount of vacant land, community redevelopment assumptions,
current comprehensive plans, and existing densities
o Represents a continuation of the current land use, employment, and population
growth trends
• Transportation
o For baseline conditions, "Trend" demographic projection used with the
anticipated 2005 roadway network (the currently built roadway network and those
applicable roadway projects expected to be open to the motoring public by
December 31, 2005)
o Maintenance of existing mode share for alternative mode programs
Economic Development
o Consistent with historical trends observed for growth and location of economic
opportunities
Scenario Story:
The style and location of future development matches closely with patterns represented over the
past 7 or 8 years. Much of the residential development in the region occurs at very low densities,
in a range from 4 households per acre to 1 household per 10+ acres. This development pattern is
widely dispersed, occurring inside and outside city impact areas, across all six counties.
Employment growth also follows recent patterns, identified at a county level. Development of
the transportation system reflects implementation of current work programs and the long range
plans developed by the responsible agencies.
BOOKEND #1 -Suburban Residential Explosion
Housing expands onto the cheaper land in Canyon County while employment growth continues
in Ada County
Scenario Summary:
• Land Use
o Growth not constrained to existing impact areas
o Canyon County captures increased proportion of new housing growth relative to
trend
o Majority of employment growth is maintained in Ada County
^ Canyon County captures only 10% of new employment growth mainly in
industrialjobs
Transportation
o Limited alternative mode programs (focused on current carpool and vanpool
resources)
o Little growth in regional transit system to provide the minimum of service:
infrequent headways and limited commuter/express bus service
o Includes some recommendations from the Downtown Boise Mobility Study,
including downtown circulator/shuttle and restructuring of the current transit
system to serve a smaller geographic area with greater frequency
Economic Development
o Ada County employment growth continues due to locational advantages and
continued programs to attract office an retail employment
o Cheaper land costs in Canyon County and an abundant workforce attract
industrial jobs
Scenario Story:
Housing developers continue to seek abundant,
less expensive land in Canyon County as Ada
County builds out its capacity. This trend has
become apparent in the last decade with Canyon
County attracting nearly 40% of the incremental
growth.
Employment growth is maintained in Ada County
due to its locational advantages (airport, freeway
access, etc.) and continued programs to attract
new industries. As the Trend Scenario suggests,
the majority of industrial jobs will locate in
Canyon County in response to cheaper land costs
and an abundant workforce. The majority of
service jobs will continue to locate in Ada
County, since it is the state capital, and the large
retail centers will develop more efficiently to
capture destination shoppers. Of the incremental
growth, Canyon County will capture
approximately 10% of new employment.
Transportation in this scenario assumes a limited
alternative mode program focused on current
carpool and vanpool resources. This scenario
assumes little growth in the regional transit
system, with most of the available service used for the transit-dependent population. The system
will provide the minimum of service: infrequent headways and limited commuter/express bus
service. However, this scenario does assume development of some of the recommendations from
the Downtown Boise Mobility Study, including creation of a downtown circulator/shuttle and a
restructuring of the current transit system to serve a smaller geographic area with greater
frequency.
Overall, regional commuters will have to rely more heavily on carpool and vanpool options.
While many of the low cost transportation demand management strategies and programs will be
adopted throughout the region, limited funding and infrastructure will also reduce the
effectiveness of these programs.
BOOKEND #2 -Changing Tides of Growth
Both households and employment shift to Canyon County as Ada County becomes a more
difficult place to live and work
Scenario Summary:
• Land Use
o Growth is constrained to existing impact areas
o Canyon County captures increased proportion of new housing growth relative to
trend
o Canyon County captures substantially greater proportion of new employment
growth relative to trend (both commercial and industrial)
o Increased housing growth in downtown Boise
o Traditional town centers, retail centers, and main streets emerge to support self-
sufficiency within each community
o Activity Centers will develop along highways, major arterials, and at rail stations
Transportation
o Downtown Boise will create a local streetcar system
o Commuter rail service introduced linked to expanded local bus and express bus
service
o Expanded vanpool and carpool programs
o Canyon County transit system will expand to provide moderate local service and
limited express service to communities in other counties
Economic Development
o Boise will remain the center for service and government employment
o Many new companies will choose to locate to Canyon County due to cheaper land
and proximity to work force
o Communities through the six county regional move towards a more self-
sufficiency balance of jobs and housing
o In Downtown and major activity centers, there are land use policies that promote
increased densities, clustered parking, market value parking pricing, apedestrian-
friendly environment, and infrastructure improvements that support alternative
modes
Scenario Story:
Affordable housing will continue to attract new
residents to Canyon County. The Boise area will
continue to develop its downtown to meet the
demand of the new urban `pioneers'. The
development of downtown Boise as a 24-hour
center in conjunction with loft districts will
generate a new trend in the city, resulting in more
housing growth downtown than was originally
anticipated and less growth in the more suburban
and rural areas.
Employers will begin to consider locations near the expanded population. With commutes
becoming more difficult between the primary job center in Boise and the suburban homes in
Canyon County, developing businesses on cheaper land and closer to workers will make
economic sense, and light manufacturing industries also will move into the area. Boise will
remain the center for service and government employment, but many new industrial companies
will choose to locate closer to their work force.
Regionally, the local arterial system will be somewhat relieved by distributed employment and
the resulting improved jobs/housing balance. Local main streets will emerge in smaller towns to
provide for the needs of residents, some based on traditional patterns and others created along
arterials near population centers. Major retail centers along the freeway system will add new
development and, in some cases, will consolidate parking into structures, allowing more efficient
development of the sites. Traditional town centers will be redeveloped as mixed-use areas with
older neighborhoods converting to higher density townhomes and condominiums to meet the
demand of an aging population.
Downtown Boise will create a local streetcar system, linked with commuter rail service, and
greatly expanded local bus transit and express bus service to provide commute options
throughout the study area. Activity centers will develop along highways, major arterials, and at
rail stations. Within the Downtown area and major activity centers, there are land use policies
that promote increased densities, clustered parking, market value parking pricing, apedestrian-
friendly environment, and infrastructure improvements that support alternative modes. Land use
decisions have resulted in increased density along transit corridors allowing for the creation of a
more productive transit system that serves more riders more frequently. The counties have
partnered to further develop the existing vanpool and carpool program, resulting in a significant
increase in vanpoolers and carpoolers throughout the region. Local and regional agencies have
worked together to build a bicycle infrastructure that includes not only bike routes, but also bike
lockers and racks in every major activity center.
The Canyon County transit system will continue to evolve, building on the success of carpool
and vanpool programs that establish key commuter routes, providing express bus service when
appropriate. The Canyon County transit system will provide moderate local service and limited
express service linking communities.
Partnering Counties will see additional state resources committed to supporting the state highway
network, as greater efficiencies in system performance are achieved throughout the region. Local
investments will improve opportunities to safely walk and bike within communities and
development patterns will support self-sufficiency within each community.
WORKSHOP AVERAGE SCENARIO
Growth occurs near and within existing communities, with the majority of jobs still attracted to
the largest cities
Scenario Story:
The average distribution of all the placed chips from the community workshops is used to
develop this scenario. Results from the workshop show a wide range of possible scenarios that
could be developed, but the average distribution reflects a "middle of the road scenario" with
respect to the total of all selected chipsets from the workshop and also the placement of the
chips.
This "average scenario" reveals a development pattern that is compact in some locations, while
quite dispersed in others.
The existing major city centers of Boise, Meridian, Nampa, and Caldwell continue to grow and
upgrade their downtown areas. In Boise, residential growth within the area of impact is a
combination of urban neighborhoods - in the areas closer to downtown -and small pockets of
allowable lower density (rural conservation) housing in the foothills. Adjacent to the Micron
campus, new development opportunities for offices, industry, and housing show some support.
In Meridian, much of the new growth is concentrated in the northwest quadrant of the city just
north of Ustick Rd. Reinvestment in a "main street" district occurs on Meridian Road. In
Caldwell and Nampa, the cities experience reinvestment in their downtown areas, but also
experience housing growth throughout both cities. Eagle, Star, and Middleton experience similar
growth patterns to those of Nampa and Caldwell.
The outlying smaller towns experience some downtown investment as well, with plenty of low-
density housing encircling them.
Low-density housing is spread throughout the region outside the areas of impact. Pockets of
low-density to very-low density housing occur on vacant land between Kuna and Meridian, just
south of Nampa, between Middleton and Star, between Star and Eagle, and on the prime
farmland just north of Nampa between Caldwell and Meridian. Separation between cities is not
always apparent.
The "average" transportation system includes the conversion of the existing freight rail corridor
to a light rail or bus rapid transit (LRT/BRT) system between CaldwelUNampa and Boise. If
freeway expansion improvements are made, they are prioritized to serve transit as either
exclusive transit lanes or high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes. New Boise River crossings
would occur associated with an improved connection to State Highway 16 and the Three Cities
River Crossing (Hwy 55). Combined roadway and transit improvements would be made along
State Highway 16, 44, and 55 and US 20/26. East/West arterials such as Fairview, Overland,
Franklin, and Victory would also have combined roadway and transit improvements. A new
roadway connection (designed as an arterial, parkway, expressway, or freeway) would develop
south of I-84, beginning at one of the two interchanges south of Micron and extending to any
number of connections along I-84 between Ten Mile and the State Highway 44 interchange.
Some form of a loop transit system (express bus or BRT) would develop to connect many cities
within the region (likely Boise, Garden City, Eagle, Star, Middleton, Caldwell, Nampa, and
Meridian).
COMPACT LINEAR DEVELOPMENT
Jobs and housing growth occurs along robust multimodal corridors that connect major urban
centers, as surrounding communities become more self-sustaining
Scenario Story:
Growth in Ada and Canyon Counties over the next quarter of a century concentrates along high-
capacity, multimodal transportation corridors that develop in the area. Two primary corridors
emerge with different forms of transit. The LRT/CRT corridor (light rail transit or commuter rail
transit) is an east/west corridor extending from downtown Boise to downtown Caldwell. Express
buses and vanpools provide direct links for outlying communities to this corridor. In addition,
circulator bus routes provide high-frequency connections for households and jobs within afour-
mile radius of transit stations. Areas around stations develop with high-quality pedestrian and
bicycle amenities and mixes of land uses that are highly transit-supportive. A second transit
corridor develops along the north side of the Boise River, as transit-oriented development occurs
at key station areas extending from Boise to Eagle. Transit in this corridor (bus rapid transit or
express bus) is given priority treatment to ensure that transit travel times are not more than 1.5
times that of auto travel times.
Development is guided by the attractiveness of station areas that are equipped with high-quality
local transportation amenities (pedestrian, bicycle, and circulator transit) and connect to high-
mobility transit services and transportation corridors. Central cities continue to attract median
wage to high-paying jobs, while transit-oriented office parks, research and educational facilities,
and high-intensity clean industries site in close proximity to the primary transit spine. All job
growth occurs within Area of Impact boundaries or within 1.5 miles of the LRT/CRT corridor.
As such, a linear urban form begins to take shape as new and infill development grows astride
the LRT/CRT corridor, connecting the east and west ends of the region. This corridor is
accentuated by a pearl string oftransit-station centers containing places for people to live, work,
and conduct life's other daily activities. Between most of these stations are compact
neighborhoods with a mix of housing types: small-lot single-family homes, townhomes,
duplexes, condominiums, and apartments.
Downtown Boise continues as the seat of government for the State and the central city of the
region. The downtown core area fills in with new office development and expands somewhat
geographically. The growth in downtown Boise includes urban neighborhood residential,
supporting residential retail, and additional retail, civic, and entertainment attractions.
Reinvestment and expansion in all the downtowns - in Boise, Caldwell, Eagle, Kuna, Meridian,
Middleton, Nampa, and Star -strengthens the sense of place and identity of each city and the
region as a whole. Each city reinvests in its "main street" district, evolving them into places
where residents and visitors enjoy the unique local heritage, public spaces and urban parks, and
have access to civic institutions, restaurants, shops, movie theaters, and also to regional
transportation connections.
Suburban styles of residential subdivisions still develop, but within the existing Areas of Impact.
They connect to the growing cities and towns by an interconnected street network equipped with
pedestrian and bicycle facilities. Each of these towns and cities is connected to the regional
transit system by efficient transit technologies that include carpools, vanpools, circulator buses,
and express buses.
Overall, much of the existing agricultural land is protected and remains undeveloped.
Development on sensitive environmental lands is successfully discouraged and greenbelts form
visible separation between cities.
DISPERSED SATELLITE CITIES
Most communities see measurable growth in housing and jobs, as each becomes more self-
sufficient
As the Ada and Canyon Counties region grow in the next 20 to 30 years, the desire to preserve
agriculture resources and more evenly disperse growth throughout the region frames the growth
of regional satellite cities. Current smaller towns Parma, Notus, Wilder, and Greenleaf, in the
northwest section of Canyon County, and Melba in the southern end grow into complete self-
sustaining cities, complete with a mix of housing and employment opportunities. Current closer-
in towns of Middleton, Star, Eagle, and Kuna follow the same trajectory, continue to grow, and
become larger cities. Additionally, a new town begins to form adjacent to the Interstate-
84Blacks Creek (Kuna-Mora Road) interchange.
Most of the new developments -new housing and employment opportunities -that are built in
these satellite cities occur on vacant land. Minimal growth spills over existing areas of impact.
Overall, this dispersed growth relieves growth pressures in the existing major urban centers in
the region.
Caldwell, Nampa, Meridian, and Boise still continue to grow, but do not rely as much on
redevelopment and infill when compared to the compact linear development scenario. These
cities still experience development of some compact urban neighborhoods, but residential
subdivisions are a more prevalent product being built within existing areas of impact. To a small
extent, some areas outside the areas of impact are developed into rural housing conservation
clusters.
The dispersal of growth into satellite cities helps to preserve significant regional agricultural
resources and open space. Only small portions of the existing agricultural land outside areas of
impact are developed, primarily on lands deemed less productive and more suitable for
development. Additionally, development on sensitive environmental lands is strongly
discouraged. Separation between cities is noticeable with the protection of productive farms and
important open space resources.
Envisioned with this scenario is a complementary transportation system that connects all of these
cities. It would likely contain a mix of highway, roadway, and transit improvements. It may
include light rail or bus-rapid transit between Caldwell and Boise with express bus service or
vanpool links to the satellite cities.