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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2024-08-08 - Meridian Planning Dept. - Previous Land Analysis - Memo MEMORANDUM COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT Community Development   33 E. Broadway Avenue, Meridian, ID 83642  Phone 208‐884‐5533    Fax 208‐888‐6854    www.meridiancity.org    July 15, 2022 TO: Mayor Robert Simison Meridian City Council CC: Bruce Freckleton, Community Development Director FROM: Brian McClure, Comprehensive Associate Planner Caleb Hood, Planning Division Manager RE: Ten Mile Interchange Specific Area Plan Development Analysis Staff have received queries related to the alignment of development approvals within the Ten Mile Interchange Specific Plan (Ten Mile Plan) to the Ten Mile Plan itself. Additionally, and since there have been numerous developed and entitled projects within the area over the last 15 years, staff believe that some broader analysis of both recent and historical entitlements may be helpful context. This memo is primarily intended to address questions about the density of recent entitlements, and also report aggregated analysis of land use approvals within the Ten Mile Plan area. Adopted in 2007, the Ten Mile Plan is approximately 2,200 acres and the purpose foremost to serve as an employment area, with supportive residential to balance transportation impacts and provide for unique lifestyle opportunities. The vision was 20,000 jobs and 6,000 to 10,000 dwelling units. The mid-target vision (program) ratio of this is then 2.50 jobs per housing unit. Residential density was high (for Idaho at least), but intentional and context sensitive. With some notable changes from the original approved vision (more on this later), the Ten Mile Plan is envisioned by land use area (acres) to be approximately 48% non-residential and 52% residential. Currently, approximately 73% of the developed area is residential and 27% non- residential. See Attached Exhibit Map at end of this memo. This disparity in planned versus developed area may be due in part to market demand for residential, but most of the industrial and mixed-employment areas still do not have services available either. Page 2 Figure 1: Land Use Type by Status Dials     Notes: Built out areas are those either constructed or permitted with addressing in place. In progress  areas are those with entitlements but which have not advanced towards construction. Undeveloped  areas are those without entitlements, or with very old entitlements and no construction. The overall plan  is balanced in land use areas, but intensities and density vary.  Market trends and service availability can be better seen when examining specific future land use designations. Development within planned residential areas with services were early to start, some of which began before the Ten Mile Plan was even adopted (Baraya), and other residential areas have been quick to fill in. Almost all of the area planned for High Density Residential has already been constructed or entitled, and very high quantities of all other residential types or residential portions of mixed-use areas as are rapidly progressing as well. The opposite is largely true for predominately non-residential designations (see Figure 2 below). Figure 2: Land Development Status (Acres) Bar Chart    Notes: Two recent pre‐apps for Med‐High Density Residential, if they proceed forward, would bring the  total built out + in progress portion to above 70%. While a high in progress percent, most of the High  Density Employment is now entitled with fairly standard office area, and includes other supportive lower  intensity uses. Most of the Mixed Use Commercial areas have a far higher ratio of residential to  employment than originally planned.  53.2% 41.8% 86.8% 38.6% 81.2% 65.5% 30.1% 97.7% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential Med‐High Density Residential High Density Residential MU‐Res MU‐Com Commercial Mixed Employment Low Density Employment High Density Employment General Industrial Civic LAND DEVELOPMENT STATUS (ACRES) Built Out + In Progress Undeveloped 73% 27% BUILT OUT AREA Residential Non‐Residential 75% 25% IN PROGRESS  AREA Residential Non‐Residential 35% 65% UNDEVELOPED  AREA Residential Non‐Residential 52%48% ADOPTED VISION Residential Non‐Residential Page 3 While to date development has largely been residential, both in gross acreage and intensity, actual residential density have been generally constrained to targeted ranges (though often on the higher end). Medium density is almost spot on at 5.4 dwelling units per acre. The highest difference between expected densities is Medium High Density Residential (MHDR), realizing 12.1 du/acre with 8 being the traditional expectation. High Density Residential has the highest densities with 16.4 being realizing and the target being 15. Comparing residential entitlements and densities to the Ten Mile Plan vision is interesting. If the average densities constructed and entitled so far, are realized over the remaining undeveloped areas, then this build out dwelling unit estimate varies significantly from the baseline expected estimates of the land uses adopted today (assuming a blank slate and no entitlements). MHDR results in the greatest population total with a fairly significant variation from expected values. While average densities haven’t varied significantly, there is more MHDR than any other residential land use designation in the Ten Mile Plan, and so in total results in a significant housing unit change. Figure 3: Residential Entitlement    Notes: Existing address may be either constructed, or received building permits and be pending  construction. Entitled DU have no received building permits.  The biggest variation is Mixed Use Commercial (MUC). MUC is intended first as Commercial, with residential generally as vertically integrated and in support of activity and maintaining vibrancy within office and retail areas. It was not intended to be standalone or disconnected from commercial uses. Entitlements however have been predominately residential. While the density is within range considering just the residential component, residential has occupied far more area than the Ten Mile Plan intended. As a result, there will be more dwelling units within these areas than originally planned. Overall, the total housing estimates at build out are within the original program range, due primarily to the loss of the Lifestyle Center (more on this later). 5.4  12.1  16.4 14.6  5.0  8.0  15.0  10.0  10.0   ‐  2.0  4.0  6.0  8.0  10.0  12.0  14.0  16.0  18.0 MDR MHDR HDR MU‐Com MU‐Res AVERAGE & TARGET DENSITIES  (DWELLING UNITS PER ACRE) Entitled Density Expected Densities  ‐  200  400  600  800  1,000  1,200  1,400  1,600  1,800 EXISTING RESIDENTIAL +  ENTITLEMENTS Existing Address Entitled DU Page 4 Figure 4: Residential Comparison Bar Charts    Notes: The light‐colored background of the residential dwelling unit allocation represents the build out  estimate. The colors bars interior are existing and entitled. The “gap” between these is the average  remaining density multiplied by the remaining area.  To understand how this residential intensity aligns with employment, COMPASS employment data was used as the existing starting point. This data is compiled from several different sources including State, Federal, and private sources, and thoroughly cleaned. COMPASS estimated a jobs to housing ratio of 2.1 in 2020. However, the rapid pace of housing development saw this drift towards a ratio of 1.05 jobs per housing ratio by 2022. Considering all entitled residential units, this total slips to 0.6 jobs per dwelling unit. Table 5: Plan Performance  Description Existing +  Entitled Ratio  Buildout  Estimate  Ratio  Program  Vision (High)  Ratio  Program  Vision (Mid)  Target  Program Vision  (Low) Ratio  Jobs 3,056  12,088  20,000  20,000  20,000   Dwelling Units 5,066  7,226  6,000  8,000  10,000   Jobs/DU 0.6  1.7  3.3  2.5  2.0   Notes: Buildout estimate is the original vision program intensities, applied only to what remains and  added to what exists or is entitled now. The Program Vision are the original land use and transportation  program assuming all greenfield development (a blank slate).  While some commercial development is expected with current entitlements, it generally takes longer with supportive uses following roof-tops, and the increasing saturation of visible vacant office and large industrial flex building (warehousing) prototypes in Meridian, means that the status quo (disproportionate residential development) is realistic in the short-term. Supportive low-density retail and service uses are of course important, and likely to continue, but will not move the needle. Regardless, estimating the buildout of the area using intensities that would have met the target program, in only those areas not constructed or entitled, and on top of what exists 527 666 960 582 663 640 886  ‐  500  1,000  1,500  2,000  2,500  3,000 RESIDENTIAL DWELLING UNIT  ALLOCATION  Build Out DU Estimate Existing Address Entitled DU  ‐  500  1,000  1,500  2,000  2,500  3,000 VISION COMPARED TO BUILD OUT  ESTIMATES Program Expected DU Build Out DU Estimate Page 5 now, results in a jobs per dwelling unit ratio of 1.7 at build out. This is below the high, mid, and low vision plan targets of the Ten Mile Plan program. Said another way, it will be difficult to recover lost ground without some dramatic changes to development patterns. The transportation and utility infrastructure is not currently in place to meet this challenge. Figure 6: Plan Performance Dials    However, just assuming the original plan intensities over remaining undeveloped areas is perhaps unrealistic. Other entitled, developing, and active applications for large retail and warehousing space have much lower jobs/acre than the original vision. A large number of jobs over a large area, is still a low jobs per acre ratio, especially when considering intense residential. Considering also the near-term market opportunity for additional residential supportive uses, as additional dwellings are constructed, is likely to further market pressure for traditional suburban commercial developments. Grocers, drive-thrus, and other retail and service uses developed in individual, single-story pad sites, all have much lower jobs/acre than the Ten Mile Plan contemplated along the Ten Mile corridor. The Ten Mile Plan envisioned an intense, integrated and innovative “center” near I-84. Not that the area hasn’t been developing nicely, it just feels more like a traditional or standard interchange in Idaho. 38% 62% EXISTING + ENTITLED  RATIO Jobs Dwelling Units Jobs/DU  0.6 63% 37% BUILDOUT ESTIMATE  RATIO Jobs Dwelling Units Jobs/DU  1.7 71% 29% VISION (MID) TARGET Jobs Dwelling Units Jobs/DU  2.5 Page 6 Figure 7: Plan Performance Bar Chart    Additional Context and Commentary The Ten Mile Plan has been amended since its adoption in 2007. The originally adopted future land uses have been revised significantly in a few areas, and the services to support the entire area have not been realized. There is no transit service to support the intensity of existing or envisioned residential uses, most of which require jobs that are not available in the area; the transportation network may be significantly out of alignment. There is also more freight existing and planned on the Franklin corridor than originally intended, which may have significant impacts on signal performance. A slip lane (express off-ramp) from the interstate was also never realized into the north area of the plan, which may have allowed additional signalized green light time in other travel movements (improving performance). These changes are compounded when considering the misalignment with jobs and housing ratio, and given that most essential services such as schools and groceries also require additional trips into and out of the area. Even forecasting development of the area forward in a “best case”, there is a significant disparity between the expected jobs and supported (emphasis) dwelling units. Trip capture for the density envisioned in the area is very behind. 0.6  1.7  3.3  2.5  2.0   ‐  0.5  1.0  1.5  2.0  2.5  3.0  3.5  ‐  5,000  10,000  15,000  20,000 Existing + Entitled Ratio Buildout Estimate Ratio Vision (High) Ratio Vision (Mid) Target Vision (Low) Ratio Jobs per Dwelling UnitTotal Jobs or Dwelling UnitsPLAN PERFORMANCE Jobs Dwelling Units Jobs/DU Page 7 Figure 8: Plan Progress Chart    Notes: Existing + Entitled to Vision Progress portrays how close the City is to matching the original vision  now. The Build Out to Vision Progress depicts what exists or is entitled now, and adds the Build Out  estimates on top to compare with the original Ten Mile Plan Vision.  As noted previously, future land use amendments have also had significant impacts. A large area previously planned for High Density Employment was changed to Commercial, to allow for a highway-oriented power center. While this was ultimately developed with some midrise office buildings, the original vision would have required structured parking and less fragmented and higher-intensity development patterns. While redevelopment of parking areas may be possible in the future, it’s likely at a competitive disadvantage with so much greenfield land remaining nearby, and doesn’t address the jobs to housing ratio imbalance that already exists. To rely on future infill to address these concerns is probably not the best solution. Another large change, likely the most impactful, is the loss of the planned Lifestyle Center land use area (now just Commercial). While the Lifestyle Center (LC) was not likely regionally feasible given the development of The Village at Meridian, and competitive commercial west in Nampa at Garrity now, the intended purpose of this integrated space is unlikely to be recovered from. The LC was to provide services, gathering areas, and consolidated and centralized regional draw; to be the living room of the entire planning area. It would have been the primary node of activity central to other intense uses. Employment and residential uses north and south would have had convenient access without getting in a vehicle or crossings a maze of parking aisles. Instead, a largely auto-centric commercial project with limited daily or even weekly value to local employees and residents, will take its place. This LC was a critical anchor and the basis for much of the planned intensities within the Ten Mile Plan. Its loss is compounded by the lack of any public park and no centralized schools planned north of the interstate. Only private open space will exist for residential and non-residential uses, and even then the unique lifestyle opportunity on a larger scale has been lost (opportunities still exist within smaller projects). While the Ten Mile Plan is now aging, and much of the original grandeur elements are no longer as relevant given the existing conditions, the land use and transportation relationship as well as the jobs to housing ratio is still ever-critical. Moving forward, capture and reduction of outbound local trips in an area with so much concentrated density is essential to reduce congestion and preserve the Plan’s purpose, even if the vision and program have changed. Much of the City’s 15.3%63.3%Jobs, Current Dwellings, Current  ‐  5  10  15  20 ThousandsEXISTING + ENTITLED TO VISION  PROGRSS Vision (Mid) Target 60.4%90.3%Jobs, Estimated Dwellings, Estimated  ‐  5  10  15  20 ThousandsBUILD OUT TO VISION PROGRESS Vision (Mid) Target Page 8 job base in the 2019 Comprehensive Plan is still expected to be provided in the Ten Mile area. Without it, congestion challenges may continue to compound both within the planning area and for the City overall. Moving Forward An ongoing concern is balancing land use, transportation and services in the Ten Mile Area. Staff will try to be aware of and analyze impacts when requests for additional residential entitlements with densities, without transit, employment, and other services are requested. Especially when these requests are in areas planned largely for employment. Further, staff will make stronger efforts to contrast the alignment of development proposals for employment areas with the Ten Mile Plan vision. This analysis will be shared with appointed and elected officials so it is considered with entitlement requests. There should also be some recognition that without more readily available services in the non- residential areas (primarily Industrial and Mixed Employment), and more focus on employment in other commercial areas (and not just retail and services), that the transportation network is not realizing desired trip reduction or capture, and will continue to degrade. Page 9 Attached Exhibits Exhibit 1: Ten Mile Interchange Development Status    Note: Builtout status is generally based on created address points relative to entitlement approvals.  Some areas are still developing, but have been addressed.