PZ - Market AnalysisComprehensive Planning
MARKET ANALYSIS 2018BIG PICTURE
Evolving Regional Role
Meridian’s Unique Economic Geography
Most metropolitan areas, especially in the
interior U.S., have grown over the years around
a central primary city, with connected suburbs
and other secondary satellite cities encircling
that center. Due to mountainous terrain just
east and north of downtown Boise, however,
this metro area has taken on a shape more like a
coastal urban area, with the primary downtown
pressed to one side and its suburbs (including
previously free-standing towns) spreading out
primarily to the west.
Over the past two decades, downtown Boise
has prospered through vigorous infill
development and continues to add both jobs
and housing near the core. This renaissance has
had significant spillover effects in Meridian for
both commercial and residential development.
Because of the terrain-shaped geography of the
valley, workers wanting to live X miles (or
minutes) from downtown have a limited array of
suburban options, with Meridian emerging as
the increasingly clear choice.
Locational Advantage
The map at right shows where area residents
live and work (the dots are proportional to
count of workers in each census block). We
computed a weighted center of gravity for both
jobs (workplaces) and homes (worker
residences) across the whole two-county metro
–both of which now fall in the city of Meridian.
The home-weighted center falls just north of
Franklin Ave. and Meridian Road, while the jobs-
weighted center is closer to Boise, just west of
Cloverdale Rd.
Traffic
Meridian’s growing center-of-the-universe role
in the region comes with one significant
downside: worsening traffic congestion –on I-
84 as well as most primary east-west arterials.
Without a viable regional mass transit option,
road service levels will degrade further over
time. While this is a quality-of-life concern for
Meridian, longer commute times may actually
further solidify it as a wise residential choice
(especially for families with members
commuting in different directions).
Comprehensive Planning
MARKET ANALYSIS 2018BIG PICTURE
Value Geography ?
Edge-Driven
Central Meridian has some scattered high-value
properties, primarily of arterial commercial uses, but
the city’s pattern of value density is generally
inverted –with highest values pushed towards the
edges and lower values more common in the
middle. This is in contrast to a more traditional
“bullseye” value distribution with a downtown
anchoring the strongest real estate and stepping off
towards less central locations.
It is not inherently bad to have edge-driven growth
in real estate values, but one risk is that economic
and cultural critical mass becomes more difficult to
achieve as investment chases an ever-widening ring.
The geometry of edge growth can also put a strain
on cities trying to keep up with infrastructure and
service provision. Centralized development, infill or
otherwise, is more likely to overlap with existing
service areas and infrastructure facilities, whereas
edge growth almost always requires extension of
new facilities.
Enclaves
From this citywide perspective, the patchwork of
“missing teeth”--where total property values
(including buildings) drops below $5 per parcel
square foot –is readily apparent. This pattern
generally occurs across the city’s many
unincorporated enclaves. These typically vacant or
agricultural tracts may help preserve a semi-rural feel
desirable by many, but also serve to interrupt
localized development momentum.
East Versus West
Property values tend to run higher to the east,
near Meridian’s boundary with the Boise. While
Canyon County to the west also includes major
population centers in Caldwell and Nampa, western
Meridian is notably lacking in high-value commercial
land uses. The single family edge subdivisions west
of Ten Mile Road near Fairview follow the higher-
value pattern as those on the north and south edges,
but to a lesser extent.
Note that significant new office development
activity is occurring near the I -84 and Ten Mile
Road interchange, but those rising values are not yet
reflected in the late-2017 parcel data used here.
Primarily
Retail
Primarily
Single
Family
Office, Medical,
Employment
Primarily
Retail
Primarily
Single
Family
Primarily
Single Family
$2.2B
$4.9B
$2.8B
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Property Value by Year Built
Comprehensive Planning
MARKET ANALYSIS 2018BIG PICTURE
Outward Expansion
Meridian Development Over Time
In 1970, the Meridian planning area consisted mainly
of a highly centralized downtown area surrounded by
scattered farmsteads, including larger agricultural
operations towards the southeast. These early
developments are shown in blue at right.
Development from the 1970s through the 1980s has
since expanded outward from downtown in fairly
regular procession –ending in the most recent
developments, in red, pushed mainly towards the
norther and southern extents of the city.
Some instances of “leapfrogging” are evident, such
as in the southwest quadrant of Chinden & Linder,
where 2000s development lies further out than
adjacent 2010’s construction. This phenomenon,
which tends to strain infrastructure resources, can
often be due to projects approved and platted only
to be stalled by real estate down-cycles.
Note that areas of most recent construction –mainly
residential to the far north and south, and largely
commercial along Eagle Road and at scattered key
intersections –very closely matches the areas of
highest value density shown on a separate map.
Unimproved
2010-2017
2000s
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Comprehensive Planning
MARKET ANALYSIS 2018KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Projected Growth
57,639
39,400
65,373
67,420
42,345
65,937
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
2019 2029 2039
Meridian Housing Unit Projections Compared
Compass R4 Meridian Area
LCG Market Analysis
20-yr Historical Permits/Yr
Raftelis/City Staff
Estimated & Projected Housing Units, Meridian
2019 2029 2039
Starting Point
Assumption Growth Assumptions
Compass R4
Meridian
Area 39,432 52,045 57,639
2018 HHs + 1
year at 3.4%
growth + 5%
vacancy/2nd
home overage
Nearest year projections
adjusted by nearest 5-yr
CAAGR
LCG Market
Analysis 39,400 52,386 65,373
2010 Census units
plus building
permits from
2010 to 2017
Wtd Avg CAAGR from
Compass for 2018 to 2028;
then second decade
reverts to straight-line (i.e.
repeats the absolute unit
growth from Decade 1)
20-yr
Historical
Permits/Yr 39,400 53,410 67,420
2018 set equal to
LCG starting point
Straight-line at average
absolute unit growth from
2000 to 2018
Raftelis/City
Staff 42,345 54,811 65,937
starting point is
2019 units less
one year of
growth at 7.2%
n/a, but follows Compass
in assuming decreasing
CAGR rates over time
Notes
Leland Consulting Group (LCG) and Raftelis end at very similar 2039 unit count, but
Raftelis appears to start with too many units in 2019 (more than 2010 Census count
+ total permits issued by 2018).
Compass slows more steeply than either LCG or Raftelis in Decade 2. It’s common
to have forecasts with declining long-term growth rates, but should be based on
some actual limiting factor like land supply or water supply.
Comprehensive Planning
MARKET ANALYSIS 2018KEY DEMOGRAPHICS
Age, Diversity & Household Characteristics
Meridian
Ada County
Canyon County
State of Idaho
USA
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
$75,000
20%25%30%35%40%45%
Me
d
i
a
n
H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
I
n
c
o
m
e
Pct. of Residents with Bachelors Degree
Income by Educational Attainment
Education-Income Link
6.9
5.3
7.0
12.1
22.7
14.5
17.7
8.4
5.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
<$15,000 $15,000 -
$24,999
$25,000 -
$34,999
$35,000 -
$49,999
$50,000 -
$74,999
$75,000 -
$99,999
$100,000 -
$149,999
$150,000 -
$199,999
$200,000+
Percent of Households by Income Bracket (2018 est.)
Meridian
State of Idaho
USA
30.0 33.4
59.3
40.6
64.3
Meridian Ada County Canyon
County
State of Idaho USA
Diversity Index (2018)
(chances that two
randomly picked
individuals will be of
different ethnic groups)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
Population by Age Group Meridian
Ada County
USA
Meridian’s age distribution differs
from Ada County and the US
overall in few key ways that speak
to Meridian’s skew towards
younger families.
Meridian’s relative affluence
is apparent across the
board in comparison to the
state & nation, with fewer
low income and more high
income households
Income and education go hand in
hand. While Ada County overall has
a higher share of college grads –
Meridian’s incomes are higher –due
in part to its multi-income families
(and Boise’s lower earning grad
student population).
Diversity Rising
Meridian’s ethnic diversity is
currently lower than all
comparison groups, but it’s
on the rise as the city
expands and urbanizes. The
index climbed from 26 in
2010 and is expected to top
34 over the coming five years.
Comprehensive Planning
MARKET ANALYSIS 2018EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS
Jobs and Commuting Patterns in Meridian
29%
40%
32%
23%
35%
42%
less than $1,250 $1,251 to $3,333 over $3,333
Monthly Wage Comparison
Work in Meridian
Live in Meridian
17,806
7,231
2,474
909 865 787 239 171 148 107
4,662
Where Do Meridian Residents Work?
(2015)
6,458
6,401
3,953
3,260
2,999
2,489
2,453
2,003
1,520
1,200
973
695
687
475
450
292
279
70
11
8
Healthcare
Retail
Lodging/Dining
Education
Construction
Prof/Tech Svcs
Finance/Insurance
Admin/Support
Wholesale
Manufacturing
Transport/Warehsng
Other Svcs
Art/Rec
Pub. Admin.
Real Estate
Information
Management
Ag/Resources
Utilities
Mining
Meridian Employees by Industry (2015)
WORK in Meridian
LIVE in Meridian
67%66%
48%
56%61%
18%17%
32%25%21%15%18%20%19%18%
Meridian Ada County Canyon County State of Idaho USA
Occupation Types by Place of Residence
White Collar
Blue Collar
Service
2005
2015
17,600 IN-commuters
29,500 IN -commuters
Meridian’s Daily Commuter Flow
4,200
7,200
20,700 OUT-commuters
28,100 OUT-commuters
Live & Work
in Meridian
Meridian’s evolution from bedroom community into a more
complete live/work city began a few decades ago, but the
trend is still visible in its changing commuting patterns.
Growing the middle number (people who both live and work
in the city) is key to managing traffic and has obvious
potential economic development benefits, as Meridian is
better able to satisfy the both workplace and residential
needs for prospective employees.
Meridian out-
commuting
residents tend to
earn more than its
in-commuting
workers.
Most out-commuters drive east from
Meridian to Boise, but over 10,000
commute to other destinations
Comprehensive Planning
MARKET ANALYSIS 2018RESIDENTIAL
Multifamily Supply Conditions
Scattershot Locations
Pre-2010 apartment inventory was fairly centralized within Meridian, whereas recent projects have been
fairly scattered, with a few centralized but generally pushing towards more edge locations. There is
little clustering of new or proposed projects.
Inventory & Rents Both Climbing
By the end of 2019, the count of Meridian apartment units will have quadrupled since 2000. Despite
some spikes in vacancy as major projects have come on line, the overall vacancy rate has generally
remained healthy, at around 5%, even through the recent recession. With the recent spate of new
construction (Costar shows over 1,900 units under construction at the end of 2018)
Rents across the city now average $1,127, versus $994 metro-wide. Meridian rents are 63% higher than
at the trough of the recession. Over that same period, metro rents rose just 42%. While above average
rent growth reflects the generally increasing prosperity for Meridian, there may be negative economic
development impacts as the lack of rent diversity makes hiring more difficult across the wage spectrum.
$690
$1,127
13.6%
4.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
20
0
0
20
0
1
20
0
2
20
0
3
20
0
4
20
0
5
20
0
6
20
0
7
20
0
8
20
0
9
20
1
0
20
1
1
20
1
2
20
1
3
20
1
4
20
1
5
20
1
6
20
1
7
20
1
8
Meridian Apartment Vacancy & Rents
Avg Effective Rent
Vacancy Rate
3,485
4,666
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
20
0
0
20
0
1
20
0
2
20
0
3
20
0
4
20
0
5
20
0
6
20
0
7
20
0
8
20
0
9
20
1
0
20
1
1
20
1
2
20
1
3
20
1
4
20
1
5
20
1
6
20
1
7
20
1
8
20
1
9
Meridian Unit Inventory
Assumes 60% of
currently under-
construction units
get completed in
2019
Size Inflation
In 2018, the average apartment unit size in Meridian
topped 1,000 s.f.(now 1,008), up from 901 s.f.as late as
2005. Across the two-county metro, the average unit size is
currently just 883 s.f.
This change appears to be partly in the form of increasing
the share of 3-bedroom apartments (despite little change
in average household sizes).
The unusually high unit
production in 2014-15
caused only a brief spike
in vacancy (see below)
5%
22%
64%
9%3%
29%
46%
23%
Studio 1-bed 2-bed 3-bed
Percent of Units by Bedroom Count
Built pre-2006
Built 2006 or later
Comprehensive Planning
MARKET ANALYSIS 2018RESIDENTIAL
Where are we now?Where are we headed?
717
482
500
550
442
188
161
55
34
179
206
409
1,021
2,506
1,695
2,138
1,036
642
up to $15K
$15-25K
$25-35K
$35-50K
$50-75K
$75-100K
$100-150K
$150 -200K
$200K+
Units
Per-Decade Meridian Residential Demand by Income
Rental Owner
3,100 rental
9,700 owner
13,000 Total
765 843 944
1,627
2,661
3,248
1,633
845 770
626 509 595
1,045
1,399
1,260
1,470 1,569
2,414 2,396
48 12 6 194 324 76 74 32 202 0 0 56 220
498 496 414
88
820
980
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Meridian Building Permit Trends
Total Units
Multifamily Units
Recent Permit History
2017 and 2018 have been the busiest
years for new home permitting for
over a decade, but still not equal to
the pre-recession record of 3,248
units built in 2005 (almost all single-
family then).
For 5 of the past 6 years, Meridian has
seen multifamily units accounting for
at least 20% of all residential permits.
Last year, multifamily permits hit a
historic high of 980 units, 40% of all
units.
Although the past two years might
suggest a “new normal” of nearly
2,500 annual permits, an annual
average of approximately 1,300 units
per year is more likely across business
cycle fluctuations over a mid-and
long-term planning horizon.
10-yr Averages
Total Units 1,328
Single Family 971
Multifamily 357
About the Market Projections
Meeting the 13,000 new housing units required to
accommodate household growth over the coming decade
would require average annual production of 1,300 units
annually (just below the previous decade’s average).
Assuming no substantial change to Meridian’s current
income distribution and a slight decrease in the city’s
homeownership rate, approximately 3,100 units through
2029 will be in the form of rental units. Almost 1,600 total
units would be meeting demand for households earning
under $25,000 –most of whom would require some form of
housing subsidy. As such, Meridian’s future share of regional
affordable housing absorption will flow more from political
choices than “market” forces, per se.
Thanks in part to a handful of larger, master-planned
subdivisions, Meridian now has increased the diversity in lot
sizes among its single family parcels at least somewhat. The
absorption projections shown here assume the City will
encourage further diversification in lot sizes and price points
for both ownership and rental new housing.
Key Demand Assumptions
Sources, Rationale
Starting 2019
Households
37,430 2010 Census count + permitted units from 2010 to
2018 (adjusted down 5% to account for vacancy)
Growth Type Decade 1: Fixed annual
percent rate (exponential)
Decade 2: Fixed annual unit
count (linear)
Assumes long-term growth will slow due to shrinking
land supply. Decade 2 unit demand will match Decade
1 unit demand.
Annual Growth
Rate (Decade 1)
2.90%Weighted Avg. CAAGR from Compass for 2018 to
2028
2029
Households &
10-yr Unit
Demand
43,173 households
(increase of 12,368)
Approx. 13,000 new units
required
Adding 12,368 households requires 12,986 new units
(a 5% overall add-on to maintain healthy vacancy rates
and account for a modest amount of 2nd homes &
demolitions)
Household
Income
Distribution
Pegged to ESRI (Census-
based) 2018 estimates by
income bracket (i.e. each
bracket grows at the same
overall CAGR)
No compelling evidence for changing income
assumptions. Recent new households have had higher
incomes due to rising rents/prices, but declines in
aging Boomer incomes could be countervailing force.
Percent Renter Sliding scale by income with
most affluent households
being least likely to rent.
Overall share to increase
moderately from current 22%
to 24% in first decade..
Renter households as a percent of total in Meridian
have been steady at 21-22% since 2010, but are up
from 16% in 2000. Although Millennials are aging out
of prime renting years, empty nest Boomers could
offset somewhat. Reasonable to assume that Meridian
would gradually move closer to the Ada County overall
rate of 31% as population increases.
Comprehensive Planning
MARKET ANALYSIS 2018OFFICE
Supply Conditions
Office Supply, Meridian vs. Metro, Mid -2018
Inventory
(s.f.)
Pct.
Vacant
Asking
Rent/Mo
2018
Delivered &
Under
Construction
Meridian 4.6 million 6.0%$1.44 224,500
Metro
Boise 30.6 million 6.8%$1.38 365,300
$1.39
6.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
Vacancy
Re
n
t
/
s
f
/
m
o
.
Metro Office Vacancy & Rent
33
5
,
6
1
5
30.6M
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
26
26
27
27
28
28
29
29
30
30
31
31
S.
F
.
U
n
d
e
r
C
o
n
s
t
r
u
c
t
i
o
n
Mi
l
l
i
o
n
s
.
f
.
Office Inventory & Activity
Meridian Strong
Meridian accounted for 60% of metro-wide
office construction in 2017-18, including
the 83,000 s.f.Magellan Building under
construction at the fast growing Ten Mile
Road interchange along I-84.
Asking rents in Meridian are slightly higher
and vacancy rates are slightly lower,
compared to metro area averages.
Comprehensive Planning
MARKET ANALYSIS 2018OFFICE
Growth in Office Jobs Where are we headed?
2018 Jobs Est. Pct. In
Office
Space
Est.
Gross
S.F. per
Office
Job
Est.
Current
Office
Space (sf)
10-yr
Growth
Rate
10-yr Office
Space
Growth
(City of
Meridian)
Information 377 95%350 125,353 2.58%36,406
Finance/Insurance 3,070 100%350 1,074,500 4.20%546,876
Real Estate 563 100%350 197,050 2.29%49,967
Prof/Tech Svcs 1,940 95%350 645,050 4.50%356,693
Management 221 100%350 77,350 5.50%54,775
Admin/Support 2,252 85%350 669,970 1.49%106,616
Healthcare 5,432 35%350 665,420 4.05%324,427
All Other 25,448 (mixed)_350 528,825 (mixed)125,581
Total 39,303 3,983,518 2.92%1,601,339
Note: This graph omits agriculture, mining, and utilities, which together accounted for less than
50 jobs in 2008
2018 Employment based on State of Idaho QCEW data. Industry growth rates taken from State of
Idaho Long Term Industry Employment Projections (2016-2026), then adjusted upwards by a
factor of 1.92 to account for Meridian’s faster projected growth rate (per Compass).
Leland Consulting Group made manual adjustments to shift some growth into office-sector
industries from transportation, warehousing and wholesale sectors, while remaining consistent
with overall employment growth levels projected by the State.. This reflects the recent evolution
of Meridian towards increased office growth recent trends and significant levels of planned and
approved office development projects.
Bedrooms and
Boardrooms
Meridian’s declining role as
simply a bedroom community
is especially evident in
primarily office-sector jobs. In
2005, there were1,000 more
office sector workers living in
Meridian than working in
Meridian. In just a decade,
that relationship has flipped –
with 500 more office sector
workers now employed in
Meridian businesses than
living in the city.
Adding the estimated 1.6
million square feet of office
space supported in Meridian
over the next decade should
further diminish the old
“bedroom” role for the city.
4,465
5,963
5,476 5,445
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
2005 2015
Meridian Office Sector Employment
854
377
563
900
221
1,416
1,407
1,237
2,252
968
3,587
1,940
3,478
4,827
3,070
6,725
5,432
42
109
143
143
156
261
308
314
358
535
867
1,073
1,330
1,561
1,563
1,705
2,648
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Pub. Admin.
Information
Real Estate
Other Svcs
Management
Manufacturing
Wholesale
Art/Rec
Admin/Support
Transport/Warehsng
Education
Prof/Tech Svcs
Construction
Lodging/Dining
Finance/Insurance
Retail
Healthcare
Projected Meridian Job Growth (10-yr)
Existing 2018 Jobs
Projected 10-yr Job
Growth
Projected growth in office-intensive
industries (bold blue font)
drives future office space demand
Comprehensive Planning
MARKET ANALYSIS 2018INDUSTRIAL
Supply Conditions
Scaled by property
size: This industrial
space is 77,000 sf
$0.55
3.5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
Vacancy
Re
n
t
/
s
f
/
m
o
.
Metro Industrial Vacancy & Rent
61
2
,
1
0
8
44.1M
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
20
0
7
20
0
8
20
0
9
20
1
0
20
1
1
20
1
2
20
1
3
20
1
4
20
1
5
20
1
6
20
1
7
20
1
8
S.
F
.
U
n
d
e
r
C
o
n
s
t
r
u
c
t
i
o
n
Mi
l
l
i
o
n
s
.
f
.
Industrial Inventory & Activity
Industrial Supply, Meridian vs. Metro, Q4,2018
Inventory
(s.f.)
Pct.
Vacant
Asking
Rent/Mo
2018
Delivered &
Under
Construction
Meridian 5.4 million 2.6%$0.63 44,540
Metro
Boise 44.1 million 3.6%$0.55 733,563
Meridian Strong
Almost 15% of Meridian’s industrial space
was constructed after 2010, versus less
than 4% for the Treasure Valley overall.
Meridian has higher rents and lower
vacancies than the metro-wide industrial
market.
Both rents and occupancy have been on
the rise in Meridian and across the region
since the recession bottom in 2012.
Flex space is
shaded purple
Role of Rail
Meridian industrial space is a westward continuation of a manufacturing, warehousing and
logistics corridor in west Boise, clustered around the Union Pacific rail line.
Some occupants still make use of the rail for receiving supplies (including major shipments
of wax to the Scentsy plant) and shipping, but the clustering today is more a function of
following the zoning rather than rail-dependence.
Today’s industrial users rely more on easy interstate access and would probably prefer
locations more directly accessible to I-84 (or a future Hwy 16), if zoned land were available.
That said, current highway proximity appears to be adequate–as evidenced by the spate of
recent construction in Meridian (bold outlines on the map).
Comprehensive Planning
MARKET ANALYSIS 2018INDUSTRIAL
Estimating Demand
Meridian Industrial Employment & Demand
2018
Jobs
Pct. In
Industrial
Space
Est. S.F.
per
Industrial
Job
Current
Industrial
& Flex
Space (sf)
10-yr
Growth
Rate
2028
Jobs
10-yr
Industrial
Space
Growth
Construction 3,478 10%800 278,240 3.3%4,808 106,365
Manufacturing 1,416 95%800 1,076,160 1.7%1,677 198,410
Wholesale 1,407 95%1500 2,004,975 2.0%1,715 526,894
Transport &
Warehousing
968 90%1500 1,306,800 4.5%1,503 867,145
All Other 32,034 mixed mixed 552,313 mixed 42,723 136,291
Total 39,303 5,218,488 2.72%51,414 1,835,104
Increasingly Industrious
From an acreage standpoint, residential dominates Meridian’s land use mix –and will well into
the future. The city, however, is adding to its industrial, flex and R&D jobs base. By 2029,
projected employment growth in industrial-oriented sectors should drive demand for 1.8
million s.f.of new industrial and flex space. Approximately 870,000 of that is likely to be
devoted to logistics –the transportation and warehousing of goods.
Automation & Productivity
In decline for decades, the US manufacturing sector has
seen a gradual rebound of late. While manufacturing
jobs have begun a modest resurgence, most of the
sector’s rebound has been evidenced by increased
output (sales) and productivity. In other words, thanks
to widespread automation of a growing range of
processes, more money is being made using fewer
human employees. So, while manufacturing regains its
hold in the US, new related job growth may be
moderate.
Industrial Trends
State of Idaho Key Industries BVEP Target Industries Meridian Proposed Clusters
Advanced Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing
Back Office/Shared Services Professional Services Professional Services
Technology & Innovation Technology Technology
Health Care
Food Production Food Processing andAgribusiness
Aerospace
Idaho’s Energy Industry
Outdoor Recreation
854
377
563
900
221
1,416
1,407
1,237
2,252
968
3,587
1,940
3,478
4,827
3,070
6,725
5,432
42
109
143
143
156
261
308
314
358
535
867
1,073
1,330
1,561
1,563
1,705
2,648
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Pub. Admin.
Information
Real Estate
Other Svcs
Management
Manufacturing
Wholesale
Art/Rec
Admin/Support
Transport/Warehsng
Education
Prof/Tech Svcs
Construction
Lodging/Dining
Finance/Insurance
Retail
Healthcare
Projected Meridian Job Growth (10-yr)
Existing 2018 Jobs
Projected 10-yr Job
Growth
As with office space, new
industrial demand comes
primarily from a handful of
industry sectors
Comprehensive Planning
MARKET ANALYSIS 2018RETAIL
Where are we now?Where are we headed?
52,874
52,923
58,908
60,786
69,183
71,850
113,970
144,848
224,303
272,518
332,652
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
Health & Personal Care
Clothing & Accessories
Furniture & Home Furnishings
Sporting Gds, Hobby, Book, Music
Electronics & Appliance
Misc. Store Retailers
Building Material, Garden Equip
Foodservice & Drinking Places
Other (cinema, storefront office, banks, etc.)
General Merchandise
Food & Beverage (grocery)
est. square feet
Meridian 10-year Retail Demand by Source
Household Growth
Leakage Recapture
Replacement
1.5 Million s.f. total
-$90.3
-$56.2
-$44.8
-$27.6
-$23.6
-$18.9
-$11.6
$7.5
$18.5
$107.5
General Merchandise
Furniture and Home Furnishings
Health and Personal Care
Foodservice and Drinking Places
Misc. Store Retailers
Clothing and Accessories
Sporting Gds, Hobby, Book, Music
Building Material, Garden Equip
Electronics and Appliance
Food and Beverage (grocery)
Meridian Household Spending Power minus Meridian Sales
Retail Leakage/Surplus by Category (X 1,000,000)
Rooftops Drive Retail
Over the next ten years, Meridian’s robust residential growth is expected to continue at
2.9% annually –more than 3.6 times the national pace. Household growth alone should
add some $330 million in retail spending potential, resulting in approximately 1.15 million
s.f.of supported retail space.
Except for within the food and beverage (grocery stores) category, the lion’s share of
growth in Meridian retail demand over the coming decade will be driven by these new
rooftops. Together with recouped leakage and a modest amount of replacement of
obsolete space, Meridian will be able to support approximately 1.5 million square feet of
new retail –led by over 300,000 s.f.of grocery store space.
While Meridian may eventually require another regional scale lifestyle-type shopping
center (like The Village), that level of support in shoppers goods spending will not likely
manifest within the next decade.
Mind the Gap
Based on a comparison of estimated Meridian resident spending power and estimated
Meridian store sales, it appears that over $100 million in resident grocery spending alone is
currently “leaking” to stores outside the city limits –enough to support up to 200,000+s.f.
of new supermarket space. Additional leakage is occurring, but to a lesser extent, for
spending on electronics and at home centers.
As Meridian matures as a more well-rounded suburban community (and as traffic congestion
in and out of the city increases), it becomes increasingly important to shore up these
spending gaps by adding more retail inventory within the city.
In fact, as of the date of this report, a considerable amount of grocery -anchored retail
is already under construction or has concrete plans to open in Meridian, including an
80,000 s.f.WinCo, a 100,000 s.f.Alberston’s flagship store, branded Market Street, and a
new Costo (with a large grocery component) is slated to open in 2020 –additions that
together would address the lion’s share of currently identified pent-up demand.
Albertson’s 100,000 s.f.
Market Street flagship store
under construction
Comprehensive Planning
MARKET ANALYSIS 2018RETAIL
Supply Conditions
Retail Supply, Meridian vs. Metro, Q4,2018
Inventory
(s.f.)
Pct.
Vacant
Asking
Rent/Mo
2018
Delivered &
Under
Construction
Meridian 6.1 million 6.0%$1.36 21,846
Metro
Boise 40.5 million 4.9%$1.05 320,389
$1.05
4.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
Vacancy
Re
n
t
/
s
f
/
m
o
.
Metro Retail Vacancy & Rent
19
1
,
1
3
5
40.5M
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
S.
F
.
U
n
d
e
r
C
o
n
s
t
r
u
c
t
i
o
n
Mi
l
l
i
o
n
s
.
f
.
Retail Inventory & Activity
Comprehensive Planning
MARKET ANALYSIS 2018DEMAND VS. LAND SUPPLY
Estimated 20-year Demand Designated Land Capacity Meridian’s Supply of Developable Land
Meridian is technically land-locked to a certain extent, in the sense that other
municipalities lie outside its boundaries that will one day limit its expansion
through future annexation. That said, with the exception of the eastern border
with Boise, those obstacles are unlikely to be a major constraint during the 20-
year horizon for this plan update.
In addition to this room at the edges, Meridian has substantial stocks of
vacant and highly underutilized land already within its boundaries that are
available for development in the near term. This supply is further boosted by
the abundant, largely undeveloped, unincorporated enclaves within the city
limits. Some of those enclaves will probably remain as rural ag holdouts
through the planning horizon, but most will likely sell and be annexed by
2039.
Single Family
Residential
2,900 acres
14,600 units
at 5 units/ac
Attached
Ownership
Residential
Multifamily
Residential
Retail
Office
Industrial &
Flex
Demand Totals
Residential (units)10-year (Units)Est.
Units/Ac
10-yr
Parcel
Acres
20-yr
Parcel-
Acres
Multifamily Rental 2,200 18 122 244
Multi/attached Ownership 800 14 57 114
Single Family Detached 7,300 5 1,460 2,920
Non-Residential (s.f.)10-year (s.f.)Est. FAR
Retail 1,414,000 0.25 130 260
Office 1,601,000 0.40 92 184
Industrial 1,835,000 0.25 169 337
Future Land Use
Designation
Est.
Buildable
Acres
Mixed-Use Assumptions
Low Density Residential 2,314
Medium Density Residential 3,577
Med-High Density Residential 433
High Density Residential 218
MU-Community 560 50% residential
MU-Neighborhood 158 70% residential
MU-Residential 75 90% residential
MU-Regional 675 20% residential
Old Town 39 40% residential
Commercial 401 50% office/50% retail
General Industrial 355 100% industrial
High Density Employment 31 70% office/30% industrial
Lifestyle Center 126 80% retail/20% office
Low Density Employment 18 50% office/50% industrial
Mixed Employment 257 50% office/50% industrial
Mixed Use -Interchange 82 40% retail/30% office/30% industrial
MU-Commercial 125 30% retail/30% office/20% residential
MU-Non Residential 212 30% office/30% retail/40% industrial
Office 41 100% office
114 acres
1,600 units at 14 units/ac
244 acres
4,400 units at 18 units/ac
260 acres
2.8 million s.f.at 0.25 FAR
129 acres
2.2 million s.f.at 0.4 FAR
456 acres
2.5 million s.f.at 0.4 FAR
5,890 total capacity acres (Low Density Residential + Medium Density Residential)
430 total capacity acres (Medium-High Density Residential)
720 total capacity acres (High Density Residential + multiple MU categories)
435 total capacity acres (multiple FLU designations –see table at lower right)
551 total capacity acres (multiple FLU designations –see table at lower right)
611 total capacity acres (multiple FLU designations –see table at lower right)